1. 2013/14 Crop Market Outlook Northeast R&D Farm Fall Field Day
Nashua, Iowa
Aug. 28, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
97.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
154.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,763
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
719
Imports 8 28 29
165 30
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,517
11,934
14,512
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,546
4,450
5,100
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,650
4,900
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,400
1,450
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
715
1,225
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,528
11,215
12,675
Ending Stocks
1,837
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.95
4.90
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.6
42.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,015
3,255
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
125
Imports 15 14 16 35
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,219
3,396
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,685
1,675
Seed & Residual
110
130 88 95
116
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,365
1,315
1,385
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,176
Ending Stocks
220
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.40
11.35
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Crop Rating

5. Objective Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Soybean Crop Rating

8. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

9. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

12. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

13. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Soybean Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Soybean Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Corn Grind for Ethanol

21. Ethanol Stocks

22. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

23. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

24. Current Corn Futures
4.77
4.68
4.56
Source: CME Group, 8/27/2013

25. Current Soybean Futures
12.77
11.42
10.82
Source: CME Group, 8/27/2013

26. New Crop Prices

27. Corn Prices vs. Costs

28. Soy Prices vs. Costs

29. 3 Month Outlook - Temps

30. Crop Acreage
Source: USDA-NASS

31. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

32. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Can the new crop beat the summer heat? It had been so far, so good
Then can it beat the freeze?
New crop ratings are decent, Eastern vs. Western Corn Belt
Corn demand rebounding?
Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?
2012/13
USDA
2013/14 USDA
2013/14
Futures
(8/27/13)
Corn
$6.95
$4.90
$4.56
Soybeans
$14.40
$11.35
$12.77

33. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: