1. Seminario: Ecosystem Services University of Guadalajara
The Great Transition:
Our Future Scenarios
1)Market Forces
2) Fortress World
3) Policy Reform
4) Great Transition
Dr. Paul C. Sutton
Seminario: Ecosystem Services
University of Guadalajara
Guadalajara, Mexico
December 2-5, 2016 1

3. Land Degradation contributes to
Loss of ecosystem services

4. Land Degradation in Central America
% of Potential NPP

5. Land Degradation in South America
% of Potential NPP

6. Regional ecosystem service value losses from land degradation
(based on the Haberl and Imhoff models (see Chapter 3), and the data found in Appendix 3 and 4)

7. Percentage change in the value of land from land degradation (based on the Haberl and Imhoff models, data found in Appendix 3) The Great or perhaps not so Great Transitions are underway

8. The Scenarios
Individualism
Community
Focus on Well-being

9. Characterizing the Scenarios
(Note: This is only from land cover change Not from land degradation)
This table shows the 12 scenarios that were combined from 3 different sources to make the four future scenarios used in this paper. It also shows the characteristics and variable of these four scenarios.

10. Land Cover Transitions (for details on modeling rules see this paper Robert Costanza, Rudolf de Groot, Paul Sutton, Sander van der Ploeg, Sharolyn J. Anderson, Ida Kubiszewski, Stephen Farber, R. Kerry Turner, Changes in the global value of ecosystem services, Global Environmental Change, Volume 26, May 2014, Pages , ISSN , ( Keywords: Ecosystem services; Global value; Monetary units; Natural capital
Urban
Wetland
Cropland
Forest
Rangeland/grassland
Desert
This is the Data we will use in the workshop (next 5 slides)

11. Baseline (2011)
Base: 2011

12. Market Forces
Market Forces

13. Fortress World
Fortress World

14. Policy Reform
Policy Reform

15. Great Transition
Great Transition
Great Transition

16. Global Consequences of Scenario Differences ES Values for 1997, 2011, 4 Scenarios

17. National Consequences East & Southeast Asia

18. National Consequences Southeast Asia

19. National Consequences South Asia

20. Percent Change in ES Values
Global map showing the scale of percent change for each country in ecosystem services value in each of the four scenarios from the 2011 base map.

21. Asia & Oceania
The terrestrial values for the ecosystem services in 47 countries in Asia and Oceania for the 2011 base and each of the four future scenarios, including the percent change for all four scenarios.

22. Temporal Modeling Total values out to 2050
This graph shows the total values for each scenario through 2050 when both the unit values and land areas are changed.

23. China
The biome land use changes for four scenarios compared to 2011 ecosystem services values.
First Column: Maps of the land cover of each biome for the base map and the four scenarios.
Second Column: Maps of the pixels changed between the base map of 2011 and each of the four scenarios. In the MF and FW maps, there are multiple symmetric circular desert areas. These occur because a single desert pixel in the original base map grew symmetrically outwards from all edges of desert.
Third Column: Maps of the change in the value of ecosystem services between the base map of 2011 and each of the four scenarios.

24. SE Asia
The biome land use changes for four scenarios compared to 2011 ecosystem services values.
First Column: Maps of the land cover of each biome for the base map and the four scenarios.
Second Column: Maps of the pixels changed between the base map of 2011 and each of the four scenarios. In the MF and FW maps, there are multiple symmetric circular desert areas. These occur because a single desert pixel in the original base map grew symmetrically outwards from all edges of desert.
Third Column: Maps of the change in the value of ecosystem services between the base map of 2011 and each of the four scenarios.

25. India
The biome land use changes for four scenarios compared to 2011 ecosystem services values.
First Column: Maps of the land cover of each biome for the base map and the four scenarios.
Second Column: Maps of the pixels changed between the base map of 2011 and each of the four scenarios. In the MF and FW maps, there are multiple symmetric circular desert areas. These occur because a single desert pixel in the original base map grew symmetrically outwards from all edges of desert.
Third Column: Maps of the change in the value of ecosystem services between the base map of 2011 and each of the four scenarios.

26. Bhutan
The biome land use changes for four scenarios compared to 2011 ecosystem services values.
First Column: Maps of the land cover of each biome for the base map and the four scenarios.
Second Column: Maps of the pixels changed between the base map of 2011 and each of the four scenarios. In the MF and FW maps, there are multiple symmetric circular desert areas. These occur because a single desert pixel in the original base map grew symmetrically outwards from all edges of desert.
Third Column: Maps of the change in the value of ecosystem services between the base map of 2011 and each of the four scenarios.

27. Two Studies of ESV in Bhutan Comparison of local & global studies
USD $14.9 billion/year
USD $15.5 billion/year
4% DIFFERENCE

28. Why are there Differences in Values? (Bhutan Case Study)
Resolution. The global model has a one-kilometer resolution while the national study was at a much finer resolution. Using a one-kilometer resolution implies that if any part of the pixel that touches the Bhutanese border is counted, even if only a small percentage of the one-kilometer pixel is in Bhutan itself. The total land area difference was 128 thousand hectares. Resolution also makes a difference in the biomes detected in the model. Although the national study found 3,528 hectares of inland wetlands in Bhutan, they are all smaller than 1 km2, meaning that the global study did not pick up any wetlands in Bhutan.
Data Source. The data from the global model came from a remote sensing study, which used satellite images to identify the biomes based on how they looked from space. This method sometimes has a hard time distinguishing between similar biomes. For example, the global study shows 804,000 hectares of tropical forests in Bhutan, even though all of Bhutan’s forests are temperate. On the other hand, the land cover data from the national study was government data that had been extensively ground truthed.
Unit Values. In both studies, the unit values for each square kilometer of biome were derived through the use of benefit transfer. In the national study, all transferred values were carefully vetted to ensure that they were from regions similar in climate, quality, and other characteristics before averaging. The global model averaged values from all over the world, making them less specific to Bhutan itself.

29. National Consequences Latin America ?
This is the goal of this workshop
Map the changes for Latin American Countries
Calculate the changes to ES Values from the scenarios
Speculate on the ‘credibility’ of the land use changes
relative to the scenarios
4) Speculate on how best to communicate these results to
both policy makers and the public
5) Speculate on effective policies to chart a path to a
sustainable and desirable future.
Note: The ‘Speculations’ will be nationally specific.

30. Reference Papers
Kubiszewski, I., S. J. Anderson, R. Costanza and P. C. Sutton. (2016). The Future of Ecosystem Services in Asia and the Pacific. Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies 3(3):
Kubiszewski, I., R. Costanza, S. Anderson, P. Sutton. (In Review). The Future of Ecosystem Services: Global Scenarios and National Implications. Ecology & Society.
Sutton, P.C., S.J. Anderson, R. Costanza, I. Kubiszewski The ecological economics of land degradation: impacts on ecosystem service values. Ecological Economics 129:
Turner, K. G., S. Anderson, M. Gonzales-Chang, R. Costanza, S. Courville, T. Dalgaard, E. Dominati, I. Kubiszewski, S. Ogilvy, L. Porfirio, N. Ratna, H. Sandhu, P. C. Sutton, J.-C. Svenning, G. M. Turner, Y.-D. Varennes, A. Voinov and S. Wratten. (2016). A review of methods, data, and models to assess changes in the value of ecosystem services from land degradation and restoration. Ecological Modelling 319: