1. Anthropogener Klimawandel: Attributierung Projektionen
Ein Überblick
Matthias Lüdeke, PIK, RDII

2. 1. Klimawandel Klimamodelle Attributierung Prognosen und Szenarien

3. Estimate of the Earth’s annual and global mean energy balance
Estimate of the Earth’s annual and global mean energy balance. Over the long term, the amount of incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth and
atmosphere is balanced by the Earth and atmosphere releasing the same amount of outgoing longwave radiation. About half of the incoming solar radiation is absorbed by the
Earth’s surface. This energy is transferred to the atmosphere by warming the air in contact with the surface (thermals), by evapotranspiration and by longwave radiation that is
absorbed by clouds and greenhouse gases. The atmosphere in turn radiates longwave energy back to Earth as well as out to space. Source: Kiehl and Trenberth (1997).
Kiehl, J., and K. Trenberth, 1997: Earth’s annual global mean energy budget. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 197–206.

4. Radiative forcing is the change in the net, downward minus upward, irradiance (expressed in W m–2) at the tropopause due to a change in an external driver of climate change, such as, for example, a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide or the output of the Sun. Radiative forcing is computed with all tropospheric properties held fixed at their unperturbed values, and after allowing for stratospheric temperatures, if perturbed, to readjust to radiative-dynamical equilibrium. Radiative forcing is called instantaneous if no change in stratospheric temperature is accounted for. For the purposes of this report, radiative forcing is further defined as the change relative to the year 1750 and, unless otherwise noted, refers to a global and annual average value.
Radiative forcing is not to be confused with cloud radiative forcing, a similar terminology for describing an unrelated measure of the impact of clouds on the irradiance at the top of the atmosphere.

5. Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
Forschungsbereich II: Klimawirkung und Vulnerabilität

6. Im AR4 benutzte AOGCMs

7. Entwicklung der Auflösung seit 1990

8. Observed climatological annual mean SST and, over land, surface
air temperature (labelled contours) and the multi-model mean error in these
temperatures, simulated minus observed (colour-shaded contours).

9. Annual mean precipitation (cm), observed (a) and simulated (b), based on the multimodel
mean. The Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP; Xie and Arkin,
1997) observation-based climatology for 1980 to 1999 is shown, and the model results are for
the same period in the 20th-century simulations in the MMD at PCMDI. In (a), observations were
not available for the grey regions. Results for individual models can be seen in Supplementary
Material, Figure S8.9.

10. Attributierung