1. Bulgaria’s Energy and National Security 12
Sofia. June 15, 2018.
Bulgaria’s Energy and National Security
– an independent view from the outside
Bulat Nigmatulin, Institute of Power Engineering Problems, Russia

3. Electricity use (KWh) per $1,000 GDP 2016: Bulgaria, its neighboring countries, and the EU-28

4. GDP (constant prices), GFCF, and Final Electricity Consumption in Bulgaria compared to 1990 (World Bank Database)

5. GPD, GFCF, average annual kel(GDP/GFCF) growth rates, 1980-2016

6. GDP (constant prices) and electricity consumption dynamics in Bulgaria, compared to 1990 (World Bank Database, Eurostat).

7. Installed capacity and electricity generation potential in Bulgaria
Power station
Installed capacity, mWt
Full-load hours
Electricity generation,
bln kWh a year
Period
Kozloduy Nuclear Power Plant
2 000
7 500 15
2030 and further
„АЕS Galabovo” Thermal Power Station
670
6 000 ÷ 7 000
4,02 ÷ 4,69
Maritsa Iztok 2 Thermal Power Station
1 580
6 000 ÷ 6 500
9,48 ÷ 10,27
Min. to 2025
ContourGlobal Maritsa East 3 Thermal Power Station
908
5,45 ÷ 6,36
Varna Thermal Power Plant
630
4 500
2,8
„Bobov Dol” Thermal Power Plant
370
1,7
Min. to 2020
Industrial and heating thermal power stations
730
6 000
3,4 ÷ 4,4
Hydropower Plants
2070
2415
4,68 ÷ 5,00
2025 and further
Pumped Hydroelectric Power Stations
865
1000
0,8-0,9
Wind Power Plants
1300
2 280
2,96
Solar Power Plants
250
1 500
0,38
Thermal power station, biofuel
100
0,5
New Maritsa Iztok 2 Thermal Power Station
500
7 000
3,25 ÷ 3,5
Total to 2020
11594
54,32 ÷ 58,36
As the very least to 2025 total installed capacity of all power stations in Bulgaria will amount to 11,6 GW with probable electricity generation of 54,3 bln kWh a year

8. Electricity production (gross), electricity generation (net, with distribution losses) and final electricity consumption,

9. Total energy losses, electricity consumption on energy own use and total distribution losses, per cent from electric generation (gross) in Bulgaria,

10. Bulgaria’s total energy losses decreased from 34% (1999) to 27% (2015); EU-28 average – 16%
Bulgaria’s energy system operational level is LOW
Average additional energy generation potential amounts to 3,7 bln. kWh a year

11. Average import-export balance – 8,9 TWh (2010-2016)12
Exportation, importation, and electricity import-export balance of Bulgaria,
In positive electricity import-export balance changed from 0,16 TWh (1995) to 10,7 (2011)TWh.
Average import-export balance – 8,9 TWh ( )

12. Bulgaria’s provisions for rising internal power consumption
Bulgaria’s power engineering has additional opportunities to cover its internal electricity consumption for the near years (to 2035):
Thanks to drastic decline in electricity consumption for own use and distribution losses
Thanks to dropping electric power exportation.
Total provisions for electric power generation are:
12,6 TWh = 3,7 TWh + 8,9 TWh
It covers nearly 40% of Bulgaria’s average electricity consumption (net) in the recent years ( )

13. Bulgaria’s electricity consumption mid-term forecast to 2035

14. Bulgaria’s GDP and GFCF (constant 2010 prices) in (fact) and forecast to 2035 – both reference and optimistic scenarios

15. Reference scenario average GDP growth rate is 1,4%, GFCF – 2,6%
Reference scenario average GDP growth rate is 1,4%, GFCF – 2,6% : expected average GDP growth rate – 1,5%, GFCF – 2,9%; : GDP growth – 1,0%, GFCF – 1,9%.
Optimistic scenario: average GDP growth rate is 1,8%, GFCF – 3,5% : expected average GDP growth rate – 2,0%, GFCF – 3,8%; : GDP growth – 1,5%, GFCF – 2,9%.

16. Bulgaria’s final electricity consumption in (fact) and forecast to 2035 – both reference and optimistic scenarios

17. Reference scenario: substantial electricity consumption growth is not expected, it will amount to as low as 0,6% a year in , and 0,4% – Electricity consumption surges from 35 to 39 bln kWh, i.e. approximately in 1,11 times or for 4,0 bln kWh.
Optimistic scenario: electricity consumption growth will also be insignificant and amount to 0,8% a year in , and 0,6% – Electricity consumption swells from 35 до 40 bln kWh, i.e. approximately in 1,14 раза or for 5,5 bln kWh.

18. CONSLUSIONS
Bulgaria’s electricity generation substantially outweighs its economic development.
GFCF efficiency in Bulgaria’s economy in is lower than in its neighboring countries.
In 2015 Bulgaria’s final electricity consumption made up 0,84 of 1990 and matched the 1981 level.

19. Bulgaria possesses nearly 40% reserves to meet internal electricity consumption.
Bulgaria has no need to expand additional capacities.
Major problem is to augment both installed capacity exploitation and power grid facilities to decrease energy losses from 27% to 18% (EU average is 16%)

20. Thank you for attention!