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Published byHallvard Viken Modified over 5 years ago
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4/8/2019 NA UFS Market Dynamics January 2019
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4/8/2019 NA UFS Market Update 2018 demand dropped -0.5%, 2019 demand decline forecasted at 4.4% 2018 operating rates were 90% 2018 capacity reductions totaled 410,000, 5% of demand 2019 announced capacity reduction of 630,000 tons, 7.6% of demand Imports began to increase late in 2018 but remain at post-trade case average Increased pulp pricing, input costs of raw materials and transportation led to rising pulp and paper prices across the globe and remain elevated heading into 2019 Source: PPPC, RISI Total UFS Market = 8.27 million tons (PPPC)
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North American UFS Announced Capacity Reductions and Demand Trend
INTERNAL ONLY - DO NOT FORWARD OUTSIDE OF DOMTAR 4/8/2019 North American UFS Announced Capacity Reductions and Demand Trend North American capacity reductions continue to outpace demand decline Capacity Reductions (2018) Date UFS Reduction % of Demand Flambeau River Paper Q1 2018 100,000 1.2% GP Camas Q2 2018 230,000 2.8% Boise/PCA Wallula Q3 2018 80,000 1% GP Port Hudson Q1 2019 630,000 7.6% IP Riverdale (Selma) H1 2020* 220,000 **2.8% TOTAL 1,260,000 15.4% *Conversion postponed from mid-2019 to H1 2020 Total UFS Market 2018/2019 = 8.27 million tons (PPPC) PPPC – Global Demand UW CS. Nov 2018 and Jan 2019 Data **Total Est. UFS Market 2020 = 7.9 million tons (PPPC)
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4/8/2019 Imports Overview Imports increased in 2018 yet remain 8% of UFS demand Trade Case Source: PPPC, Import Genius
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Pricing History: Copy Paper Adjusted for Inflation
INTERNAL ONLY - DO NOT FORWARD OUTSIDE OF DOMTAR 4/8/2019 Pricing History: Copy Paper Adjusted for Inflation Source: RISI
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Pricing History: Offset Rolls Adjusted for Inflation
INTERNAL ONLY - DO NOT FORWARD OUTSIDE OF DOMTAR 4/8/2019 Pricing History: Offset Rolls Adjusted for Inflation Source: RISI
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North American Market Pulp Price Trends
INTERNAL ONLY - DO NOT FORWARD OUTSIDE OF DOMTAR 4/8/2019 North American Market Pulp Price Trends Pulp price increases have slowed but remain at elevated levels Source: RISI
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4/8/2019 Trucking Update Truck capacity has eased slightly but rates remain high Source: DAT Solutions
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4/8/2019 Mill Inventories Normal year-end slowdown allowed for the rebuild of mill inventories but at relatively low levels Days of Supply Source:PPPC
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4/8/2019 2019 Outlook 2019 market is expected to remain tight Domtar is committed to being a reliable supplier 2018 Performance 95% on-time shipments 95% in-stock rate Our joint success will require communication and collaboration – here’s what you can do to help Accurate forecasting Business growth expectations including acquisitions Inventory needs including customer specific inventory turns Timely appointments and carrier unloading Sufficient planning for order lead times Full and even truckloads where possible
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Domtar Value Proposition
INTERNAL ONLY - DO NOT FORWARD OUTSIDE OF DOMTAR 4/8/2019 Domtar Value Proposition LONG-TERM COMMITTED PARTNERSHIP MOST RELIABLE & ADAPTABLE SUPPLY CHAIN BROAD RANGE OF BEST-IN-CLASS PRODUCTS PROTECT & STRENGTHEN BRAND REPUTATION Strong core values Committed to the Paper Business Knowledgeable people Personalized relationships Security of supply Modern, well maintained equipment Vast North American network Vertically integrated Broad product bundle Top-tier national & private brands Quality products with consistent performance Product Innovations via OEM relationships Recognized leader in Sustainability Help customers achieve sustainability goals Protect customer’s brand
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