1. WHY DO SOME DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BECOME AND STAY DEMOCRATIC
WHY DO SOME DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BECOME AND STAY DEMOCRATIC? WHY DON’T OTHERS?

2. WHAT ARE THE PREQUISITES FOR DEMOCRACY?
No political polarization around insurmountable differences
Economic/social structure… per cap. $8K sustains, but as little as 1.5K can work. Oil wealth not as helpful even if distributed broadly.
Elite attitudes matter more than mass attitudes.
Previous experiences with democracy
Why does democracy happen in waves?
A certain mass political culture?
A “snowball” environment helps…

3. HOW DO COUNTRIES BECOME DEMOCRATIC?
Types of transitions:
Government-dominated
Negotiated
Bottom-up replacement
The “Players”:
Hard-liners, soft-liners; moderates
Preference orders
Process tradeoffs:
Short-term vs. long-term
Economic vs. political transition
Justice and reparations

4. WHAT MAKES DEMOCRACIES ENDURE?
Consolidation requires legitimization
Behavioral vs. attitudinal (norms) dimensions
Elites, civil society, mass public
The behavioral dimension
The infrastructure of lasting democracies
A strong civil society
Independent media
Political society (especially political parties)
Institutions for the rule of law and citizenship
Rational administration with state accountability
A regulated market economy?

5. IS THE THIRD WAVE OVER? WHAT ABOUT A FOURTH WAVE?
Larry Diamond: There are only 30 core democracies, 8 of which are micro states. Democracies have come in waves where reverse waves usually eliminate half of the new ones… The first time.
Looming threats
Economic and performance crises; inequality
Civic decay and state violence
Nationalist and theocratic movements
Authoritarian enclaves and examples
Impediments to reversal
Professionalization of militaries
Cultural penetration of democracy everywhere
No global alternative ideology… yet (Duarte; China, Russia, Venezuela, Turkey…)
Trade relationships and organizations

6. DEMOCRACY AND GROWTH? WHAT DIRECTION IS THE RELATIONSHIP?
Three possibilities: XY; YX; Spurious variable Aboth X & Y. And then there is the “sometimes” factor: necessary vs. sufficient causality.
Why do democracies excel?
Voters care about economic performance a lot!
Some combination of checks and balances (in most) and coalition government: deliberation & consensus
Political monopoly tends to turn into economic monopoly; democracy usually =less
The free flow of information and transparency pressures
Adaptability and crisis management
Order matters: Does a focus on growth mean democracy will follow?
It is hard to liberalize economies under democracy
State capitalism provides an alternative to democratic growth
Authoritarian regimes are getting better at suppressing and using bad elections and propaganda: They’ve learned how to break the link between growth and democracy (for now)
Why does inequality matter? (veils of ignorance and democracy)