1. Design of Florida’s Turnpike’s State Integrated Land-Use Travel Demand Model
Thomas Adler Resource Systems Group Youssef Dehghani Parsons Brinckerhoff, Inc.
Michael Doherty
URS Corp.

2. The Modeling Approach Designed for toll forecasting applications
Built from scratch to ensure consistency among all components
Simplified travel demand model structure with integrated land use model
Database/GIS-driven
Uses only data sources that are being updated: GIS and other data maintained by Florida DOT
Seamless two-way linkage between ArcMap and model network
One-year development window
Design of Florida’s Turnpike’s State Integrated Land-Use Travel Demand Model

3. Model Network Built from GDT/ TeleAtlas network, FDOT RCI
2004 base network
500,000 arcs
124,500 links
2015 network
Florida DOT work plan: 2,000 additional links
Includes 11,800 FDOT RCI traffic count stations
Design of Florida’s Turnpike’s State Integrated Land-Use Travel Demand Model

4. Zone System Automatically generated from network
Total of 27,749 zones in v.1.0
4,626 internal
37 external
23,086 for non-developable areas (e.g. lakes)
Design of Florida’s Turnpike’s State Integrated Land-Use Travel Demand Model

5. Travel Demand Model Structure
Land Use Allocation Model
As described in Lawe, et al, presentation
Auto Trip Table
Truck Trip Table
Base tables: Matrix estimation
Future tables: Land use model
Toll vs. toll-free choice based on statewide survey data
Auto Toll Trips
Auto Toll-Free Trips
Truck Toll Trips
Truck Toll-Free Trips
Network Volumes and Travel Times
Time-lagged effect
User equilibrium assignment
Design of Florida’s Turnpike’s State Integrated Land-Use Travel Demand Model

6. Model Validation
Matrix-estimated trip lengths are very close to NHTS Florida distribution
Emphasize that 97 % is less than 50 miles in length.
20K AADT, means around 600 are trips greater than 50 miles and less than 100 are greater than 300 miles.
Visitors may make one long trip to destination, then numerous short trips.
Model matches the 11,800 counts very closely, in part due to substantial network data cleaning effort
Design of Florida’s Turnpike’s State Integrated Land-Use Travel Demand Model

7. Summary and Conclusions
FL TSM v.1.0 completed in 2006, has already been used for numerous major planning applications (Doherty, et al, presentation)
Automation of network-building process and linkage to high-quality, maintained GIS data significantly facilitate model development and maintenance efforts
Simplified initial travel demand modeling approach supports focus on critical data quality and maintenance issues
Having reliable network data supports incremental enhancements of the travel demand models over time for toll forecasting analysis
Design of Florida’s Turnpike’s State Integrated Land-Use Travel Demand Model