1. Africa Rising with Synchronized Growth
The Role of Economic Integration

2. GLOBAL SYNCHRONIZED GROWTH
Oxford Economics’ forecast highlights
 World GDP growth accelerating to 2.8% in 2017 & for 2018 at 3.0%.
 Global inflation expected to advance 2.6% in 2017 but oil prices & currency movements represent risks.
 Global surveys point to buoyant activity. Composites PMI near at or above highest level in 6 yrs.
 US economy will remain in 2% growth mode with inflation remaining below the Fed’s 2% target; policy and geopolitical risks.
 Euro area economy is gaining momentum. Hard data are catching up to strong survey data. ECB normalization taking form.
 Emerging markets growth improving though political risks still abound.

3. ABSENT POLICY ERRORS IN THE U.S.

4. AFRICA’S GROWTH PERIODS SINCE INDEPENDENCE
Period One: Post-independence blossoming
Period Two: Structural Adjustment and Debt Overhang
Period Three: Africa rising!
Period Four: 2007 – Great Recession, uncertainly and recovery
Period Five: Synchronized growth.

5. Troubling Trend

6. Troubling Trend

7. Some Things Don’t Change

8. Some Things Don’t Change

9. LIFE EXPECTANCY ACROSS THE WORLD

10. CONVERGENCE: DAMOCLES OF INTEGRATION
AFRICAN COUNTRIES CANNOT CONVERGE: SO WHAT?
THE REST OF THE WORLD IS NOT CONVERGING – NO UNCONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE
REGIONAL INTEGRATION CAN STILL LEAD TO UNCONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE – THE CASE OF SOCCER
REGIONAL INTEGRATION CAN SUSTAIN AFRICA’S SYNCHRONIZED GROWTH
BENEFITS OF COMPETITIVE POWER OF THE STATES
elimination OF the encumbrances of multiple currencies,; transaction costs ; triangular currency convertibility

11. UNCONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE: AN INSPIRATION FROM SOCCER
Krause and Szymanski (2017) show that both Β and σ convergences do occur in global soccer. Thanks to continental confederations like CAF, UEFA and
Y = f(A, K, L)
A being total factor productivity allows or hinders the diffusion of the benefits of integration across unionizing countries

12. Integration brings elusive synchronized growth
Institutional Quality - Rules of the game (Property Rights and the Rule of Law
Corruption and Faithful Adherence to agreed upon policies
Β and σ convergences will occur if only immigration policies at the border are administered uniformly and faithfully.

13. Africa Rising: A Geospatial Calibration