2. Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis
Source: UN/DESA

3. (Percent, quarter over quarter, annualized)
Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis
Global GDP Growth
(Percent, quarter over quarter, annualized)
Source: IMF

4. Global Trends: Food Crisis
Source: FAO

5. Early Warning Indicators A. Flash Quarterly GDP (Now-Casting)
The First Estimate of Overall Economic Activities
Imputation for the Last Month of the Quarter
Timeliness 10 Days After end of the Ref. Period

6. Quarterly Flash GDP

7. Actual vs. Flash GDP

8. Early Warning Indicators B. Monthly Flash GDP
Calculated using Production Approach
One Month Timeliness
Utilization of Monthly Short Term Indictors such as:
Administrative Data
Price Statistics
Monthly Survey Results
Monthly Financial Statements of the Large Enterprises

9. Early Warning Indicators B. Monthly Flash GDP
Better timeliness
Less accuracy, but acceptable
Availability of strong monthly set of information
Strengthen the Flash Quarterly GDP
Strengthen the high frequency indicators

11. Early Warning Indicator C. Composite Leading Economic Indicators
Need for quick, broad indicator for overall economic activity for immediate future
Extracting signals and producing estimates for a better understanding of cyclical movements
This work is currently under construction
Weighting system will be derived

12. Early Warning Indicator C. Composite Leading Economic Indicators

13. Challenges Encountered
Rallying for resources
Timeliness, periodicity and availability of high frequency indicators – historic emphasis annual data
Composite Leading Indicator
Lack of sufficient indicators
Methodological improvements in existing data

14. Thank you