1. Air Quality Forecasting Program and Ozone Season 2004 CAO Committee May 5, 2004 Stuart Freudberg and Joan Rohlfs

2. 2 Health-based standards for air pollutants Health-based standards for air pollutants Forecasting Program Forecasting Program Public Education through Clean Air Partners Public Education through Clean Air Partners Change in Forecasting Procedures Change in Forecasting Procedures Local Government Actions on Code Red Forecast Days Local Government Actions on Code Red Forecast Days Presentation Topics

3. 3 Clean Air Act Amendments 1990 EPA set federal health standards for ambient pollutants NOx SO 2 Lead Ozone CO Particulate Matter

4. 4 Status of Air Quality in Washington Region 2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% LeadSO 2 NO 2 PM 10 CO 1-Hour Ozone 8-Hour Ozone 1990 2003 Health Standard

5. 5 Air Quality is Monitored and Forecasted State air agencies and localities monitor air constantly at 17 regional locations State air agencies and localities monitor air constantly at 17 regional locations Meteorologists conduct daily forecast calls to predict tomorrows air quality Meteorologists conduct daily forecast calls to predict tomorrows air quality Purpose: alert public 24 hours in advance of an ozone episode Purpose: alert public 24 hours in advance of an ozone episode

6. 6 View current county-level air quality data at www.air-watch.net Real-Time Air Quality Data

7. 7 Educate the public about the health effects of ozone and motivate employers and individuals to take actions to improve air quality. BMC – COG - DC-DOH – DDOT – MDE – MDOT – VDEQ - VDOT Originally created as ENDZONE Partners by MWAQC and TPB in 1994, the organization was chartered by COG and BMC as Clean Air Partners in 1997.

8. 8 Communicate Air Quality Information 500 Public/Private Partners Prevent Air Quality Code Red Days

9. 9 Local Government Actions on Code Red Days Provide daily notice of air quality forecast Provide daily notice of air quality forecast Encourage employee use of public transit, car/van pool to and from work Encourage employee use of public transit, car/van pool to and from work Postpone asphalt paving, resurfacing Postpone asphalt paving, resurfacing Postpone use of oil-based paint, solvents Postpone use of oil-based paint, solvents Postpone use of gas-powered landscaping equipment (mowing, trimming) Postpone use of gas-powered landscaping equipment (mowing, trimming) Refueling after dusk Refueling after dusk

10. 10 New Pollutant Standards EPA is adopting two more protective air quality standards EPA is adopting two more protective air quality standards Forecasting for these standards begins this summer Forecasting for these standards begins this summer Air quality plans will be developed soon Air quality plans will be developed soon 8-Hour Ozone Standard 8-Hour Ozone Standard Particle Pollution (< 2.5 micrometers) Particle Pollution (< 2.5 micrometers) Photo courtesy US EPA

11. 11 Comparison of Ozone Standards 1-hr Ozone Standard Protects against shorter- term exposure Protects against shorter- term exposure Higher ozone limit measured over shorter time Higher ozone limit measured over shorter time Exceedance known at end of hour Exceedance known at end of hour 8-hr Ozone Standard Protects against chronic exposure Protects against chronic exposure Lower limit over a longer period of time Lower limit over a longer period of time Exceedance known at end of day Exceedance known at end of day

12. 12 8-Hour vs. 1-Hour Ozone Exceedances (1993-2003 Washington Region Data) 8 4 6 1 66 7 2 3 9 3 52 20 29 18 29 47 39 10 24 38 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 19931994199519961997199819992000200120022003 Number of Exceedance Days 1-Hour Exceedance8-Hour Exceedance

13. 13 4 8-Hour Ozone Calendar (2003)

14. 14 The New Forecast Approach An Ozone Action Day will be called at an AQI level of 151 (Code Red). An Ozone Action Day will be called at an AQI level of 151 (Code Red). An Ozone Action Day will be called if the next day is forecasted to be a High Orange (AQI of 125) AND the following day is forecasted to be a Code Red. An Ozone Action Day will be called if the next day is forecasted to be a High Orange (AQI of 125) AND the following day is forecasted to be a Code Red. AQI Range AQI Color 201-300Purple 151-200Red 101-150Orange 51-100Yellow 0-50Green

15. 15 How Many Code Red Action Days Could We Have? (1998-2003 Washington Region Data)

16. 16 What is Code Purple? AQI Range AQI Color Health Descriptor 8-Hr O3 Range (ppb) 201- 300 PurpleVery Unhealthy 125-374 Active adults and kids – and adults and children with lung disease like asthma – are sensitive to air pollution and should avoid all outdoor exertion while we are in the purple range. (1998-2003 Washington Region Data)

17. 17 Code Red and Orange Particle Days Washington, DC

18. 18 Addressing The Multi-Pollutant Issue Forecasts will be issued using the Air Quality Index (AQI) color codes. Forecasts will be issued using the Air Quality Index (AQI) color codes. Primary pollutant on hotline and fax. Primary pollutant on hotline and fax. Both pollutants on the web site. Both pollutants on the web site. Integrated health message to address both ozone and particles. Integrated health message to address both ozone and particles. AQI Range AQI Color 8-Hr O3 Range (ppb) 24-Hr PM 2.5 Range (µg/m 3 ) 201- 300 Purple125-374150.5-250.4 151- 200 Red105-12465.5-150.4 101- 150 Orange85-10440.5-65.4 51-100Yellow65-8415.5-40.4 0-50Green0-640-15.4 EPAs Air Quality Index Reporting Rule: Final August 4, 1999

19. 19 Sample Washington Press Release Air Quality Report Health Message Ozone Prevention Tips Contact Information

20. 20 Code Red Health Actions for Local Governments Need consistent policy for program involving children, students and outdoor activities during the summer. Need consistent policy for program involving children, students and outdoor activities during the summer. Should athletic practices be cancelled or postponed? Should athletic practices be cancelled or postponed? Should day camps move activities indoors? Should day camps move activities indoors?

21. 21 Integrated Health Message People with HEART OR LUNG DISEASE, older adults, children, and even healthy adults may experience health effects when air pollution levels are high (Code Orange or worse). Should air quality exceed the federal health standard, an Air Quality Code Red Health Advisory will be issued advising the following precautions: Children and older adults should reduce outdoor activities. Healthy individuals should limit strenuous work or exercise, especially outdoors. Individuals with respiratory and heart ailments, emphysema, asthma, or chronic bronchitis should limit their activity level.

22. 22 Conclusions 2004 will be a transition year from 1-hour to 8-hour ozone forecasting 2004 will be a transition year from 1-hour to 8-hour ozone forecasting Ozone Action Day becomes Air Quality Action Day to include particles Ozone Action Day becomes Air Quality Action Day to include particles