1. Action NTS0504: - Provide comparative demand data over a sample number of years
NTS Charging Methodology Forum (NTSCMF)
23rd June 2014

2. Introduction
Mod 356 “Demand data for exit capacity” was introduced when the supply forecasts were lower than the demand
At this point NG committed to publishing actual prices by 1 May to fit in with the July Application Window and the DNs requirements to pass through NTS/LDZ capacity costs to shippers
Effective from 1 May/October 2012

3. Process Two years considered, 2012 and 2013
Took actual model for each year (set at 1 May of the year)
Updated with the relevant demands and supplies (revised forecasts available end of May)
All other variables remain the same
Re run models for new prices

4. 2012 SW and WS would have been affected the most….
Actuals used SD May 11
At 1 Aug SD May 12 would have been available
Changes
Decrease in demand by 21GWh
Forecast supplies of beach remained the same
Decrease in demand met by reduced supplies at MH and IOG (GCM16)
Increase in demand in SW/WM/WS
Not enough supplies to meet demand locally compared to previous year and hence price increase.

5. 2013 no price effects … Actuals used SD May 12
At 1 Aug SD May 13 would have been available
Changes
Demand decreased by 151 GWh
Forecast supplies of beach remained the same
Decrease in demand met by reduced supplies at MH and IOG (GCM16) and storage sites around the country
Supply and demand balance remains the same ie supplies to meet demand locally compared to previous year and hence no price change (at exit zone level). Few small changes to some nodes.