1. Costing a National Guaranteed Basic Income Using the Ontario Basic Income Model
NABIG, Hamilton Mai 26, 2018
Introduce Trevor, Duncan, Erin and Jason
Take you through a case study that provides an example of the work done by the PBO (distinct role in the system).
Support financial decision-making by parliamentarians.
Done through pulling together different strands of data from within government.
And pulling together data from other jurisdictions.
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2. Presentation Outline Motivation
Background: Ontario’s Basic Income Pilot Project
Methodology
Cost of a Guaranteed Basic Income
Actual Federal Support for Low-Income People vs. GBI
Conclusion and discussion

3. costing of new proposals (e.g., Basic income)
Motivation
Functions of the PBO
Approving
(Ex ante analysis)
Economic and Fiscal Projection
Long-term Sustainability
Independent Costings
costing of new proposals (e.g., Basic income)
budget sufficiency for measures
Monitoring

4. GBI costing: a parliamentarian’s request
Uniform strategy to reduce poverty
Complex administrative process (High administrative cost)?
Sufficient expenditures?
Not all supports target the low-income people.
Existing programs
Categorizing existing federal programs and tax expenditures for low-income people: Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer. (2017). Federal Support for Low-Income Individuals and Families. Retrieved from
GBI costing
Using the Ontario’s basic income model:

5. Background: Ontario’s Basic Income Pilot Project
Participants must be 18 to 64 years old for the duration of the pilot.
People with a disability will also receive up to $500 per month on top.
GBI does not replace OAS and GIS for the elderly.
GBI does not replace child benefits.
This table will be updated by including the data that will be provided by INAC.
Sources: PBO calculations based on the Ontario pilot project parameters.

6. Methodology
PBO uses Statistics Canada’s SPSD/M, which is a statistically representative database of Canadian individuals in their family context.
the nuclear family (spouses or lone parents plus never-married children aged younger than 18 years) is the family unit recognized by Canada Revenue Agency for filing income taxes;
the net income is used as an approximation of the earned income defined by the Ontario GBI model.
Limits of SPSD/M (version 26.0):
SPSD/M data do not include the territories, persons residing on reservations, or armed forces personnel residing in barracks (+);
The SPSD/M model is a static accounting model (+/-);
The number of individuals with a disability can be underestimated (+).
Limits of the estimated model:
the difference in the poverty line between provinces was not considered.

7. Cost of a Guaranteed Basic Income
Basic cost of GBI ($ millions)
72,822
73,496
74,172
75,039
75,992
Number of potential recipients (000)
7,730
7,657
7,587
7,528
7,473
Basic cost per capita ($)
9,421
9,598
9,776
9,968
10,169
Supplement cost for disability ($ millions)
3,194
3,265
3,336
3,405
3,471
Total GBI cost ($ millions)
76,017
76,761
77,508
78,444
79,463
Source: PBO calculations, using SPSD/M model.

8. Actual Federal Support for Low-Income People vs. GBI
The federal support for low-income individuals and families and other vulnerable groups is estimated at $56.8 billion is in
This includes OAS and GIS for elderly, CCB for children, and federal support for indigenous people: $24.8 billion.
$44 billion (58%)
$32 billion (42%)
Source: Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer. (2017). Federal Support for Low Income Individuals and Families. Retrieved from

9. Conclusion and discussion
We estimate a gross costing of the GBI.
PBO estimates represent pre-behavioral (static) costs.
GBI is a combined federal-provincial basic income system that could be managed by an intergovernmental fiscal arrangement.
GBI could replace some federal and provincial transfers, such as
the GST credit
the WITB,
the social assistance.

10. THANK YOU!
Contact Information: Nasreddine Ammar Economic analyst 10