1. C. Kelly Consultant UN Convention to Combat Desertification
Sand and Dust Storms: Risk and Impact Assessment Methodology Development
3 June 17
SDS Teheran
C. Kelly
Consultant
UN Convention to Combat Desertification

2. Risk = Hazard, Vulnerability
Sand, dust, wind
Frequency – how often per years
Magnitude – how big – area
Intensity – how intense – dust density ?
3 June 17
SDS Teheran

3. Risk = Hazard, Vulnerability
Vulnerability: The conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of an individual, a community, assets or systems to the impacts of hazards. ( er-v)
3 June 17
SDS Teheran

4. Vulnerability Assessment
Process which is
Applicable to all SDS locations
Can’t be so complicated as to be undoable
Data variability: Scale, detail, coverage, consistency, meaning, appropriateness
Be as evidence-bases as possible
3 June 17
SDS Teheran

5. Options “Traditional” Alternative
Create indicators from data sets or indicators of indicators
Assign weights to indicators to adjust for perceived importance in defining vulnerability
Calculate vulnerability
Alternative
Logical model of vulnerability based on Sustainable Livelihoods Framework – incorporates “hard” and “soft” data
Define narrative description for each step in a scale from low to high vulnerability, for each area of vulnerability, applicable to all locations –
Assess based on a Delphi-like process
Combine results
3 June 17
SDS Teheran

6. Level of Impact on At Risk Populations
Type of Capital
Level of Impact on At Risk Populations
Insignificant
Low
Medium
High
Extreme
Human
No negative outcome on health.
Temporary negative outcome on health; no deaths.
Limited, short term negative outcome on health; few deaths.
Large numbers of persons experiencing negative health impacts, one or more deaths.
Widespread health impacts and deaths above 1:100,000 affected population.
Financial
No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work.
Loss of work extended for several months.
Loss of work extending for more than six months.
Near total loss of income and financial assets.
Social
No need for reliance on social network for support.
Occasional reliance on social network for support.
Heavy reliance on social network for support, but for only 1-3 months.
More than a year reliance on social network for support.
Total reliance on social network for basic needs.
Natural
No damage to natural resources.
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed to meet basic needs.
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs.
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs.
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access.
Political
Comprehensive government response.
Minor gaps in government response.
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs.
Very limited government response.
No government response to event.
3 June 17
SDS Teheran

7. In Closing
SDS risk assessment process needs to work for all locations at risk
Assessing SDS hazards poses some challenges, but is manageable
Assessing vulnerability needs to presume there will be limited data of limited value – a real challenge
Need to consider alternatives
Need to be clear about how accurate the resulting assessment will be
3 June 17
SDS Teheran

8. Sand and Dust Storms: Risk and Impact Assessment Methodology Development
3 June 17
SDS Teheran
C. Kelly
Consultant
UN Convention to Combat Desertification

9. Assigning Confidence
With data variability, confidence in results will vary
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
Quality of data used
Poor representation of spatial or temporal scope of the subject of the data
Fair representation of the spatial or temporal scope of the subject of the data
Good representation of the spatial or temporal scope of the subject of the data
Confidence in results
Low
Medium
High
3 June 17
SDS Teheran

10. Risk “Radar” Plot/Spider Diagram
Scaling
1 – “Unacceptable”
2 – “Marginally Unacceptable”
3 – “Marginally Acceptable
4 – “Acceptable”
5 – “Totally Acceptable”
Each scaling criteria has a narrative description, e.g., what would be “unacceptable” to “totally acceptable” in terms of color.
3 June 17
SDS Teheran

11. Less to More Vulnerability
Vulnerability Index 1 2 3 4
3 June 17
Less to More Vulnerability
SDS Teheran
Less to More Infrequent
Combining different types of severity difficult – Apples and Oranges
False Mathematics– Illusion of accuracy