1. J. Cofala, M. Amann, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, M. Posch, W. Schöpp
Analysis of policy measures to reduce ship emissions in the context of the NECD

2. Main characteristics of the study
Joint study of IIASA, MET.NO, ENTEC
Revised emission inventories for 2000
5 sea regions
12-mile zone and international waters
Ferries, cargo ships
EU-flags and others
SO2, NOx, PM2.5, VOC, CO2
Compilation of emission control measures and costs
Source-receptor relationships
Policy scenarios
Interim report available on the Internet

3. Emission control measures considered in the analysis

4. Emission control scenarios
Baseline
SO2: Sulphur content as in the EU Marine Fuel Directive: 1.5% S fuel for all ships in North Sea and Baltic Sea; 1.5% S fuel all passenger ships in other EU seas; 0.1% S fuel at berth in ports.
NOx: MARPOL NOx standards for ships built since 2000
“Medium” ambition
SO2: as baseline
NOx: Slide valve retrofit on all slow-speed engines pre-2000 Internal engine modifications for all new engines post-2010
“High” ambition
SO2: 0.5% S fuel or scrubbing equivalent (2g SO2/kWh) in North Sea and Baltic, and for passenger vessels everywhere
NOx: Slide valve retrofit on all slow-speed engines pre Humid air motors for all new engines post-2010

5. Emission scenarios for ships for 2020

6. Emission control costs of the scenarios

7. SO2 cost curves for ships and land-based sources 2020

8. NOx cost curves for ships and land-based sources 2020

9. Contribution made by ships to sulphur deposition 2000 and 2020 CLE (in percent)

10. Gains in statistical life expectancy from the PM2
Gains in statistical life expectancy from the PM2.5 reductions from the ship measures (months)
High ambition all ships + low S in 12 mile zones All measures

11. Preliminary conclusions
Increase in transport volumes will compensate effects of recent agreements on ship emission control
By 2020, emissions between CLE and TSAP of land-based sources
Increasing share of sulphur deposition originating from ships: in coastal regions, increase from 20% today to 50% in 2020
Identified technologies can reduce ship emissions by 80 to 90% at costs € 5.2 billion/year
Cost-effectiveness depends on locations
80 percent of emissions emitted outside of 12-mile zones
Input data for full cost-effectiveness analysis are now available