1. Climate Impact Team WMO XV Commission for Agricultural Meteorology Belo Horizonte, Brazil 15-21 July 2010 FAO data, tools & methods for climate impact assessment at national level Michele Bernardi Climate, Energy and Tenure Division www.fao.org/nr/climpag/

2. Climate Impact Team To assess weather impact on agricultural production at local, sub-national, national, and regional level To use weather and climate forecasts in farm- level decision-making To provide global and regional impact assessments on agriculture based on climate change scenarios Climate Impact Assessment Tools

3. Climate Impact Team www.fao.org/nr/climpag/

4. Climate Impact Team Food security information chain

5. Climate Impact Team FAO approach in crop yield forecasting

6. Climate Impact Team FAOCLIM-NET

7. Climate Impact Team 20010430 -999 42 -999 0 6/------- 6009 42 35 0 1 6/-///WW- 6010 43 37 1 1 6/////R/R 6011 -999 39 -999 0 6/------- 6012 56 43 23 23 6//MMRR/W 6030 53 42 -999 0 6//FF//// 6043 57 44 -999 0 6//////// 6049 57 45 11 11 6//////// 6052 61 48 0 0 6////W/// 6058

8. Climate Impact Team NDVI-GAC 8km SPOT-4 VEGETATION 1km MODIS-Terra 250m (Zambia-Malawi)

9. Climate Impact Team National crop statistics Sub-national crop statistics

10. Climate Impact Team Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) Nigeria

11. Climate Impact Team Cropping areas Crop Calendar Length of cropping season

12. Climate Impact Team Planting opportunities Field reports

13. Climate Impact Team FAO standard methodology

14. Climate Impact Team Methods for Climate Change impact assessment on agriculture

15. Climate Impact Team 2. Physical impacts on main crops and rangelands - livestock activities 3. Impacts on farming systems 4. Economic impacts 1. Climate Projections 5. Policy adaptation options CC Impact Assessment on Agriculture: an example from Morocco Government of Morocco / World Bank / FAO A number of crops, barley, wheat, vegetables, etc Barley yield projection for 2030 vs current yield A need for country to sub-country level studies of CC impact assessment ftp://ext-ftp.fao.org/SD/Reserved/Agromet/WB_FAO_morocco_CC_yield_impact/report/WB_Morocco_20091007.pdf Kingdom of Morocco Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts and Policy Implications

16. Climate Impact Team Current climate from meteorological stations Fine-gridded weather variables W 1 W 2 … W n Future climate by large grid-cells from scenarios Yield estimation model Current yield Raw future yield Downscaled and fine- gridded climate variables W 1 W 2 … W n + CO2 + Technology + Adaptation Future yield CC Impact Assessment on Agriculture: an example from Morocco

17. Climate Impact Team Downscaling CC Impact Assessment on Agriculture: an example from Morocco

18. Climate Impact Team Rainfall scenario over winter cereals cycle in 2027 (mm/dekad) Rainfed soft wheat CC Impact Assessment on Agriculture: an example from Morocco

19. Climate Impact Team Percent change in average yield (2030, A2 scenario) CC Impact Assessment on Agriculture: an example from Morocco

20. Climate Impact Team FAO Climate Change impact assessment toolbox

21. Climate Impact Team Climate Change impact assessment toolbox

22. Climate Impact Team GCM outputs Daily Low resolution grid Downscaled scenarios Daily High resolution grid Simulated Yields Growing season High resolution grid Economic Impact Yearly Administrative units/country Calibrated Yields Growing season Administrative units Water Availability Daily Watershed Weather observations Daily Stations Weather observations Daily High resolution grid Simulated Yields Growing season High resolution grid Yield calibration functions Administrative units Water Availability Daily Watershed Yield stats Growing season Administrative Units Projected Yields Growing season Administrative units Climate Change impact assessment toolbox Spatialization Crop Model +Soil +CO2 Downscaling Technological Trend Crop Model +Soil +CO2 Detrending Regression Hydro Model Hydro Model Current economy Administrative units/ country CGE Model Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model

23. Climate Impact Team CLIMATE T ( o C) EsEs TaTa Phenology Canopy Cover Leaf expansion gsgs Senescence Biomass WP Yield HI CO 2 Soil water ( & salt) balance Infiltration Uptake Redistributio n deep percolation capillary rise Rooting depth ET o Rain Runoff Wheat Maize Rice Sugarbeet Soybean Cotton Potato Quinoa Sunflower Sugarcane Tomato Teff Bambara Groundnut Forage crops (Alfalfa) Millet Barley Chickpea Sorghum

24. Climate Impact Team Other tools

25. Climate Impact Team

26. ADDAPIX Pixel-by-pixel clustering

27. Climate Impact Team

28. Infrared meteosat data ~ 3 km resolution GOES Index Humidity and precipitable water profiles from ECMWF Daily Rainfall field 3 km resolution ECMWF rainfall data ~ 25 km resolution Daily Rainfall field 3 km resolution Weighted linear combination GTS (gauges) Rainfall data Weights determination Preliminary Combined Rainfall field 3 km resolution Final Merged Rainfall field 3 km resolution MPE (Eumetsat) Infrared and Microwave Estimation 3km resolution Daily Rainfall field 3 km resolution Validated Rainfall data Interpolation Local Calibration FAO Rain Fall Estimate

29. Climate Impact Team AfricaSudan FAO Rain Fall Estimate

30. Climate Impact Team National Rainfall Index (NRI) a tool for cross-sectoral impact analyses

31. Climate Impact Team Global water stress maps

32. Climate Impact Team C onversion of absolute magnitude to impact intensity from to a knowledge base

33. Climate Impact Team

35. Capacity building at national level

36. Climate Impact Team GLCN Activities Data Software Services Technical assistance Spatial analysis Mapping Training Resource kit Data/Software distribution and support services

37. Climate Impact Team Ad-hoc training on climate impact tools