1. Climate Change and Projection for Asia
Data and Uncertainty\

2. Modeling the climate processes AND Model Outputs for Climate Change Analysis
Climate model is reduced complexity numerical system, which simulates one possible time evolution in which the major features have a response to primary forcing similar to the real world.
GCM skill lies at spatial and temporal aggregated scales, hence:
Consider the spatial pattern response
Consider time averages
GCMs have different internal structures, hence positioning of climate boundaries varies between models – this will lead to disagreement between GCMs in transitional climate locations
The first step is to validate the model: can it represent the primary processes of relevance for your region?

3. SNU RCM Downscaled Climate Change for East Asia Region

4. SNU RCM Downscaled Climate Change for East Asia Region

5. Dispersion and Inconsistency in downscaling
Seasonal Cycles by RMIP models

6. Dispersion and Inconsistency in climate projections

7. Dispersion and Inconsistency in climate projection
ΔP(mm/day)
South China
Center China
RMIP downscaled Precipitation changes

8. Sources of Uncertainty
Structure of unpredictability of a system, which can arise from a set of sources

10. Interannual variability for future climate by multi-RCMs
Asia
Land
Ocean
Annual T Trends for (c/10yr)

11. Ensembles in RMIP

12. Ensembles in RMIP

13. Ensembles in RMIP
Smaller std.?

14. Ensembles in RMIP

15. Ensembles in RMIP
Ensemble averages work well for mean climate;
Explorer the best methods for evaluating changes and extremes;
Use ensemble spread to inform uncertainty;

16. Model outputs and Observation
For surface climate:
Daily average MSLP, maximal/minimal temperature, surface wind speed (optional)
3-hourly: 2m temperature, RH, convective precipitation, large scale precipitation, evaporation, 10m wind (U,V) (optional, depending on individual model)
For upper level atmosphere
Daily average: U, V, T, H at 200, 500, 850 hPa
Observation
CRU surface temperature, OISST SST
APHRODITE and GPCP Precipitation

17. RMIP data http://rmip.nju.edu.cn, available soon,
Contact

18. Thank you!