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Supply Chain Management: Issues and Models Lecture 4: Bullwhip Effect
Prof. Dr. Jinxing Xie Department of Mathematical Sciences Tsinghua University, Beijing , China math.tsinghua.edu.cn Voice: (86-10) Fax: (86-10) Office: Rm. 1308, New Science Building
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牛鞭效应(例) i) Barilla (意大利面条制造商) ii) P & G 信息流 物流 工厂 销售总公司 分销商 零售商 顾客 P&G
批发商 3M (胶带) 信息流 物流 ii) P & G 牛鞭效应(例)
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Amplified Demand Distortion (the Bullwhip Effects)
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Four sources of the bullwhip effect: Demand signal processing Rationing game Order batching Price variation
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Bullwhip Effect: An Analytical Model
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Bullwhip effect
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Events in each period
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Variables
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Demand Process
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Results for demand signal processing
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Optimal order-up-to level
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Optimal order quantity
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Amplification of order variance
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Summary Bullwhip effect exists even when the leadtime is zero
Other causes of bullwhip effects: omitted here Sharing information is needed?
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Information sharing: Value of information
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Basic Assumptions Supplier (Manufacturer) Retailer Demand The demand is assumed to be a simple autocorrelated AR(1) process (2.1) d > 0, -1<<1, and is i.i.d. normally distributed with mean zero and variance 2. << d
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Leadtimes
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Retailer’s ordering decision process
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Manufacturer’s decision
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Retailer’s Leadtime Demand
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Retailer’s Leadtime Demand
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Retailer’s Ordering Decision
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For manufacturer:
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Manufacturer’s leadtime demand
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Manufacturer’s leadtime demand: No information sharing
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Manufacturer’s order-up-to level: No information sharing
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Manufacturer’s leadtime demand: information sharing
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Manufacturer’s order-up-to level: information sharing
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Benefits of information sharing
Comparing (3.10) with (3.13), one can quantify the benefits of information sharing: Inventory level; Cost evaluation
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Similar methods can be used to
Analyze the case when forecasting is used Raghunathan S. “Information sharing in a supply chain: a note on its value when demand is non-stationary”. Management Science, April 2001, Analyze the value of advance demand information (the value of time) Zhao X., Xie J. and Wei J. The Impact of Early Order Commitment on the Performance of a Simple Supply Chain. Working paper, 2002, Chinese University of Hong Kong.
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