1. The Ripple-down Effects of the Softwood Lumber Dispute: likely impacts along the supply chain
Harry Nelson
Associate Professor
Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia
Western Forestry Contractor Association Annual Conference
Kelowna, BC
February 7-9, 2018

2. What does Philosophy have to say about Softwood Lumber?

3. What does Philosophy have to say about Softwood Lumber?
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” George Santayana, American Philosopher, Harvard University 1905

4. What does Philosophy have to say about Softwood Lumber?
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” George Santayana, American Philosopher, Harvard Univerty 1905

5. Overview How Lumber V could ripple throughout the chain And over time
Additional source of information

6. Other trends
Harvest
Policy? ?

7. Historic softwood lumber prices

8. Peaks in the Past Decade and a Half

9. Past Year: Weekly Lumber Prices in North America

10. Price Summary Historically High Prices Today
Tariffs being Passed Through to US Consumers

11. What next? Previous experience
Are the politics or economics any different?

12. Other Trends: Harvest

15. Harvest Trends Downward-midterm timber supply pressures
Recent wildfires & potential increase in fire/disturbances

16. Policy Data Source Responsibility Reported Forecasted Licensee
Calendar Year
Licensee
BCTS & FSMF
Enhanced Basic
FFT
LCEF
2017 Fire s108
Other
Total
2000
170 30 8
208
2001
179 31 9
219
2002
160 32 5
197
2003
165 7
202
2004
158 29 1 6
193
2005
161 34 3 21
2006
178 50 2 18
248
2007
201 48 4
262
2008 57
242
2009
130 45 15
198
2010
112 40
176
2011
131 42 20
199
2012
164 37 27
234
2013
166 33
233
2014
168 36 28
237
2015
175
239
2016 26
2017
190 49
267
2018
187 47
260
2019
182 12
269
Data Source
Responsibility
Reported
Forecasted
Licensee
RESULTS query Sept 18, 2017
SPAR sowing requests were used for 2017 and Using the 2018 value as a start point, calculated using the forecasted change in Provincial AAC reported in the Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch September 2017 harvest flow forecast.
BCTS & FSMF

17. Implications Growing Disturbance Risks Harvest arrow down
Economic capacity arrow turning down (downturn)
Growing Disturbance Risks

18. How might it ripple through
Unknowns (to me)
Business models?
Existing stresses in supply chain?
Investment needs?

19. How might it ripple through?
Unknowns (to me)
Business models?
Existing stresses in supply chain?
Investment needs?
Weekly Earnings, in Canada by Sector, in CDN$ including overtime (nominal)
2001
2016
% increase
Support activities for forestry $ $
27%
Logging $
$ ,186
41%
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction
$ ,153
$ ,039
77%
Wood product manufacturing $
$ ,013
43%

20. And the unknown unknowns…

21. Summary Negative trends
Silver lining rests in concerted strategic and sustained policy direction
Supported by business coordination