1. Diverging population trends
Branislav Šprocha
Centre for Social and Psychological Sciences SAS
Boris Vaňo
INFOSTAT – Demographic Research Center
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

2. Introduction
Until 1990 the old (socialist) model of reproductive behaviour,
Transformation in the 1990s,
Present – gradual stabilization of reproduction
Population projection 2015 – 2050
Population prediction
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

3. Demographic determinants (for future population development)
Fertility, mortality, migration
World population development - developing vs. developed countries (first and second demographic transition)
European population developmet - west vs. east
Slovakia – significant changes after 1990
Expected population development
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

4. Fertility marked by „postponement“ and „recuperation“
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

5. Total cohort fertility rate
Children per woman ??
Cohort
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

6. Structure of women by number of children and cohort
Proportion (%)
Cohort
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

7. Cohort fertility rates
Children per woman
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

8. Total fertility rate
Mean age at 1. birth

9. Mortality our life is extended – but...
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

10. Life expectancy at birth
Years
Females
Males
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

11. Life expectancy at birth in selected European countries - males
The „Western bloc“
Years
The „Eastern bloc“
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

12. Life expectancy at birth in selected European countries - females
The „Western bloc“
Years
The „Eastern bloc“
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

13. Life expectancy at birth - MALES
Life expectancy at birth - FEMALES

14. Migration ???
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

15. Net migration – red positive, blue negative

16. Population projection
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

17. Population projection of Slovakia 2015 - 2100
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

18. Projection of population mean age in Slovakia 2015 - 2100
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

19. Age structure 2050 2050 2050 MALES FEMALES 2014 2014
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

20. Projection of main age groups in Slovakia 2015 - 2100
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

21. Projection of main age groups in Slovakia 2015 – 2100 (in %)
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice

22. Population projection in Slovak districts 2012-2035
Global Megatrends and the Slovak Republic 19. – 21. September 2016, Smolenice