1. Basics
Science

2. BIG “T” THEORY Science Initial Observation/Question of Interest
Hypothesis (little “t” theory)
Experimental Observation (measurements)
Results/Analysis
Conclusions/New Questions of Interest
Replication
Repetition
Other Results
BIG “T” THEORY

3. Observations
Can initially be uniform but eventually must be systematic
Audubon Christmas bird count
m2, transects, dbh, etc.
Otherwise Anecdotal with high potential for bias

4. Hypotheses Little “t” theory This is what I think is happening
Can be several hypotheses working together in the same experiment/observations
Null hypothesis is related to statistics, but serves an important function:
Any Hypothesis, theory or Theory must be able to be disproved to be scientific
You can only disprove, not (ultimately) prove a hypothesis
“No amount of experimentation can prove me right, a single experiment can prove me wrong…” Einstein

5. Experimental Observations
Make observations and/or measurements that address your hypothesis and question of interest
Three Main Types of Experiment (for us)
Control Treatment Replicate (CTR)
Retrospective
Natural Experiment
Typical Assumptions
Measuring something pertinent to your hypothesis
Measuring correctly

6. Results/Analysis Replicable Prove or disprove (or indicate) hypothesis
In Reconstructing the Past, Several Issues:
Coincidence of Indicators Important
No Direct Observation
Record Erasure
Assumptions
Proxy Variables/Models
New Questions Generated
Bias an Issue, Objectivity a Goal
What Questions Asked
How Addressed
Hopefully, the Scientific Process is not (too) Biased

7. Theory Many questions answered similarly: Theory Theory => Law
Law of Gravity
Law of Evolution
Relativity
Law of Osmosis
Testing Hypothesis to generate initial facts: Deduction
Using multiple tested outcomes to generate Theory: Induction

8. IN SCIENCE, ALL OF THE ABOVE ARE OPEN TO CHALLENGE