1. Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum II: Goals, Concepts, & Opportunities
Francisco de la Chesnaye, USEPA
Carol Jones, USDA/ERS
Bob MacGregor, AAFC/Canada
Shepherdstown, WV,
October 9-11, 2002

2. Forestry and Ag GHG Modeling Forum: Goals
Build linkages among the relevant research and policy communities, across disciplines, sectors, and modeling platforms
Improve our current understanding of the models and their (in some cases divergent) results
Identify and promote promising future research to inform public decision-making

3. The Forum Concept Who participates? How does the Forum operate?
Leading researchers from many types of institutions and government
Variety of disciplines
How does the Forum operate?
Common modeling exercises used to explore chosen topics with different modeling approaches
Regularly scheduled meetings (1-2/year) to report results
“Study groups” to address priority issues between sessions

4. Workshop I: Objectives and Results
Obtain US national-level estimates of GHG mitigation in Forest and Agriculture sectors
Demonstrate commonalties and differences across model types
Biophysical v Economic
Economic
Highlight other Regional and Global Modeling

5. Where are the Opportunities?

6. Observations All GHG must be considered
Large potential in short term for CO2
Limited potential for other GHG in short run - more science required
Modeling Forestry-Ag feedback is critical, especially in estimates of Land Use Change

7. Observations - 2 More temporal dynamics are needed
Forestry - absolutely essential
Saturation and permanence issues in both sectors
Ability to assess policies aimed at specific future time periods (re: )

8. Structure of MF Workshop II
Goals defined by participants last year:
What is the potential for GHG mitigation at different GHG prices in agriculture and forestry for North America?
Priority complementary research
Policy issues
Non-GHG impacts of mitigation

9. Proposed Follow-up Resources for:
Commissioning a report summarizing conference findings
Provide strategic information to inform design of domestic & international policies and highlight research priorities
Other possible outputs:
Academic Journal (?)
Structured Briefings

10. Goals for MF Workshop III - Spring 2004
Report findings regarding ag & forestry GHG mitigation potential:
United States
Canada
Mexico(?)
Report on implications of alternative policy designs

11. How Do We Get There?
Serve as umbrella for a variety of ongoing efforts:
Stanford EMF: multi-gas mitigation, other
Further develop No. Am. Collaboration
Create working groups complementing other efforts

12. Beyond MF Workshop III
At its core climate change analysis is still a science-driven process
We are now building the institutional structures both internationally and domestically
Physical science is integrated internationally
How do we do the policy research required to complement the science?

13. Research Challenges
Assess the role agriculture and forestry play in emissions and could play in mitigation
New ground to be broken in linking emission trading with industry to agriculture and forestry sectors, and/or traditional measures
Challenge of overlaying climate change policy with other policies in sectors with an extensive government policy role
Challenge of addressing GHG mitigation in context of broader sustainability issues for ag and forestry

14. Policy Challenges
Current gov’t plans for reducing emissions are only the beginning
both the objectives and science will evolve
Mitigation may be the easy part
Innovation may provide large opportunities
Adaptation for the agriculture and forestry sectors may be the biggest challenge
What new technologies will a carbon constrained world develop?