1. Introduction to mergers evaluation
Chris Jenkins Economics Director, CMA

2. Evaluation at the CMA 1. Measuring the impact of our interventions
2. Learning lessons for future cases
Impact assessment
Ex post evaluation

3. Overview of the mergers evaluation
Largely qualitative assessment supplemented by quantitative analysis where data available
Attempting to draw lessons across cases
Important analytical issue in many merger cases
Identified long list of 20 cases in last 8 years where entry/expansion importance to clearance
Clear test – avoids counterfactual issues in testing merger remedies or prohibitions
But only a one-way test
Eight merger cases
Focus on entry and expansion
Clearance decisions only

4. Key questions for the analysis
Did entry/expansion occur?
Was it same type as predicted?
In what timeframe?
Was entry successful?
Where no entry, could this have been foreseen?
Phase 1 vs Phase 2
Reasons why entry did/didn’t occur
Practical ways of improving analysis?