1. FTTH's Second Decade Begins: Where We Are, Where We Are Going
North American FTTH: 10 Year Report Card
Presented by:
Michael C. Render 1

2. Has FTTH Had An Impact? Economy Quality of User Experience
New Technology

3. Has FTTH Become A Household Name?
Consumer Recognition

4. Have We Overcome Challenges?
Political
Funding

5. Has FTTH Deployment Grown? Will It Continue?
Greenfield Construction
Existing Overbuilds

6. “Has FTTH Had An Impact?”….
….Economy (Grade: A)

7. How would you best describe the organization you work for?
Select one:
RBOC
ILEC
CLEC
MSO
Municipal government
State or regional government
Real Estate Developer/Integrator
End-user business
Consultant
Equipment vendor
Contractor

8. Billions In Home Based Business Impact
Average revenue from home- based businesses in FTTH homes is $59,780
Revenue for FTTH home-based businesses is $46.7 Billion
Revenue estimated to be related to FTTH performance is $11.1 Billion *
* 11% said their business would not be possible without FTTH, and 64% said it is more efficient
FTTH Enhanced Home -
Based Business Reported

9. Billions In Traditional Economic Development/GDP Growth

10. Billions In Environmental Savings
Days worked from home increased
1 day per month on average:
1 day per month average (Nearly 12% work more from home directly because of FTTH – an average of 9 days more)
US Carbon Emissions reduced by .06% (5.5% of citizens * 3% * 40%)
FTTH also lowers energy use, road maintenance, accidents, unproductive hours…
Extra Days From Home Reported

11. “Has FTTH Had An Impact?”…
…Quality of User Experience (Grade: A+)

12. Much Higher Satisfaction With Internet Aspects
FTTH Versus Cable Modem
Reliability – service uptime
Broadband speed
Installation process
Consistency of speed
Provider’s customer service 12

13. Much Higher Satisfaction With Television Aspects
FTTH Versus Cable
Quality of HD picture
Standard television
Number of HD channels
VOD 13

14. Much Higher Tested Download Performance
Median Mbps By Year 14 14

15. Much Higher Tested Upload Performance
Median Mbps By Year 15 15

16. Far Fewer Modem Reboots Reported Per Month
FTTH
DSL
FTTN
Cable modem
Wireless 16

17. Users Clearly Understand Key Advantages Of FTTH
Open End Responses
Speed/ faster/ better Internet/ bandwidth
Picture clarity/ video clarity
Reliability/ consistency/ no hassles
Bundle of several services on one bill
Cost
Fewer weather disruptions
Quality
Number of channels/ entertainment choice
Better customer service
General positives - pleased to have it
DVR
Convenience
Better than previous cable company
Video-on-demand/ movie downloads
No satellite dish
Better technology/ up-to-date
Lines are buried/ No overhead
Can run two computers at once
Easy installation
Other 17

18. “Has FTTH Had An Impact?”…
…New Technology (Grade: C)

19. Some Increased Use Of Advanced Internet Applications
Among FTTH Users Under Age 40 By Year
Shop online
Play single player games
Upload large files
Download or stream video to computer
Play multi player games
Upload video content to Internet
Use VOIP for audio
Use two-way video conferencing
Transfer files for remote offsite storage
Download or stream video to television set
Use remote software / “cloud computing”
Use remote monitoring camera video
Participate in a virtual world 19

20. There Is Interest In Futuristic Services
Current FTTH Users Under Age 40
Business video conferencing
Very large HDD with super resolution
Advanced websites/ full video
Remote home and pet monitoring
Online face-to-face healthcare
Advanced online shopping
One device for TV, Internet, & phone
Two-way video calling
Advanced online college
3D TV 20

21. There Is Interest In Futuristic Services
Current FTTH Users Age 55+
Online face-to-face healthcare
Very large HDD with super resolution
One device for TV, Internet, & phone
Advanced online shopping
Two-way video calling
Remote home and pet monitoring
Advanced websites/ full video
Business video conferencing
3D TV
Advanced online college 21

22. FTTH Upload Performance Will Become A Competitive Advantage
Median Mbps By Year 22 22

23. “Has FTTH Become A Household Name?”…
…Consumer Recognition (Grade: C)

24. General Public Awareness Of FTTH Is Still Low
By Year
2009
2010 24

25. Yet When Described, Users Understand The Importance Of FTTH In New Home Development
Non FTTH Users:
Internet from a direct fiber optic line
Green space / walking, jogging
24 hour neighborhood patrol
Community pool / park
Fitness center / Clubhouse
Current FTTH Users: 25

26. “Have We Overcome Challenges?”…
…Political (Grade: A)

27. “Have We Overcome Challenges?”…
…Funding (Grade: B-)

28. Nearly $40 Billion In Investment To Date

29. Total U.S. Telco & Cable Capital Expenditures Are Stable
Total North American Telco & Cable Capital Expenditures Are Stable

30. But There Is Competition For Telecom Capex
Wireline
Wireless
DSL broadband speeds are falling far behind the competition. Telcos are starting to lose subscribers and need an FTTH update. This is reaching severe levels in some areas, such as eastern Canada.
Smartphone penetration is expected to increase from 15% to 70% in just three years with the increasing use of higher bandwidth applications. Some see this as an impending crisis.

31. Other Investment Offers Opportunities
National public investment
Municipal public investment
Private investment

32. “Has FTTH Deployment Grown?”…
…Greenfield Construction (Grade: B-)
…Existing Overbuilds (Grade: A-)

33. FTTH Homes Passed Have Grown Cumulative – North America
100 x Growth since 2001

34. FTTH Homes Connected Have Grown Cumulative – North America

35. FTTH Penetration Has Grown Cumulative – United States35

36. But FTTH Penetration Is Not Uniform Percent Of Households Connected+

37. FTTH Internet Use Has Steadily Grown
Broadband Type Primarily Used At Home
USA By Year

38. There Has Been Some Short Term Slowing Of Growth

39. Annual Change – North America
FTTH Homes Passed
Annual Change – North America

40. Annual Change – North America
FTTH Homes Connected
Annual Change – North America

41. Greenfield FTTH Homes Connected Will Increase Annual – North America

42. Greenfield Will Finally Take Off As Older Copper-Based
Developments Are Filled

43. Likelihood Of Overbuilds Still Look Good In Many Sectors
Adding FTTH: Current Non RBOC FTTH Providers
Very unlikely
Somewhat unlikely
Somewhat likely
Very likely
All customers have FTTH 43

44. Telecom Video Was An Early Driver
FTTH Video Homes Connected Cumulative – North America

45. Broadband Line Loss Will Become A Driver
Net Broadband Adds 2009
MSO’s (Docsis2, Docsis 3)
Verizon (DSL, FTTH)
Other RBOC (DSL, FTTN)
Source: Leichtman Research 45

46. Broadband Line Loss Will Become A Driver
Net Broadband Adds First Half 2010
MSO’s (Docsis2, Docsis 3)
Verizon (DSL, FTTH)
Other RBOC (DSL, FTTN)
Source: Leichtman Market Research 46

47. How many additional North American homes do you expect to be passed by FTTH or FTTB in next 5 years (by the end of 2015)?
Select one:
3 million or less
6 million
9 million
12 million
15 million or more

48. Key: North American FTTH Will Begin A New Mild Increase
- With More Explosive Growth Possible
Key:
Yellow – stable
Light green – moderate growth
Dark green – strong growth
Note: Much of the RBOC decline has already occurred.

50. Overall… The FTTH Picture Looks Positive!

51. Q&A

52. Broadband Properties Magazine homepage: www.bbpmag.com
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