1. Naming the top three pitching assets in baseball
Katie Gonzales
Shane Williams
Austin Overmann
Nick Klein
Megan Tews KG

2. Our top three KG 1 2 3

3. Overview Process of Selection Projection Model Performance Forecast
Valuation Methodology
Assessment of Risk KG

4. KG -> SW
Process of selection

5. Starting the evaluation
What we initially looked at:
Past statistics and trends
Concerns with player makeup
How it was narrowed down:
Players 30+ years old were cut
Players with high dollar contracts were cut
Players with little to no team control were cut
Players recently sustaining major injuries were cut SW

6. CONTINUING the evaluation
FIP-
ERA-
WAR
QS%
Avg. IP
IP per Start
Jose Fernandez 72 58
4.878
71%
172.2
6.1
Chris Sale 76 71
4.838
203
7.0
Madison Bumgarner 87 84
3.848
66%
205 SW

7. SW ->NK
Projection model

8. Approach to developing projections
Determined what metrics were most important in evaluating pitching talent
Including: FBv, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, FIP, SwStr%, BABIP
Then create a metric valuing the above metrics to compare players’ “talent”
Then applied the age curve to measure how the “talent” would change during their control years NK

9. NK

10. Performance projection
Make a “comparison” statistic similar to Bill James’ similarity score to determine similar players
Ran through players from using a metric that valued these pitching qualities: K/9, BB/9, GB%/FB%, FIP and BABIP
This metric was on a scale of about 120 – 220 with some outliers
Then use those players and average their change over six years and apply to the player that they were similar to NK

11. First Results Name Age FIP WAR SPR* Rank (79) Comparison*
Clayton Kershaw 25
2.39
6.5
100.00 2
180.16
Chris Sale 24
3.17
5.1
88.014 16
183.56
Jose Fernandez 20
2.73
4.2
98.699 3
173.40
Madison Bumgarner 23
3.05
3.7
92.968 5
170.88 NK

12. Looking at war NK

13. NK -> KG
Performance forecast

14. Jose Fernandez Age ERA G IP FBv FIP WAR SwStr% F-Strike% BABIP S% SPR*
Comparison 20
2.19 28
172
94.90
2.73
4.20
0.10
0.62
0.24
0.66
98.70
173.40 21
2.10
183
94.70
4.50
98.76
169.05 22
2.14
184
94.65
2.63
5.08
0.67
100.45
165.84 23
2.46
94.45
2.48
4.59
0.09
0.61
0.34
0.68
87.41
169.13 24
2.11 26
94.35
2.53
4.49
0.63
86.13
163.92 25
2.15 27
174
94.30
4.24
0.08
0.29
91.75
173.84 KG

15. Jose Fernandez KG

16. Chris sale Age ERA G IP FBv FIP WAR SwStr% F-Strike% BABIP S% SPR*
Comparison 24
3.07 30
214
93.10
3.17
5.10
0.11
0.63
0.29
0.67
88.01
183.56 25
2.92 29
223
92.50
2.97
5.90
0.09
0.34
85.11
177.60 26
2.76
222
92.35
6.10
83.99
185.25 27
3.06
209
92.10
5.55
0.64
0.68
83.32
180.91 28
3.01
217
91.70
3.27
5.38
0.08
82.47
180.74
3.14
219
91.30
3.57
4.99
0.65
0.39
76.70
180.20 KG

17. Chris Sale KG

18. Comparing #1 and #2 Minuscule difference Basic and advanced statistics
Present value versus future value

19. Madison bumgarner Age ERA G IP FBv FIP WAR SwStr% F-Strike% BABIP S%
SPR*
Comparison 23
2.77 31
201
91.4
3.05
3.70
0.11
0.60
0.25
0.64
92.97
170.88 24
2.68
211
91.18
2.99
4.00
93.1
166.79 25
2.72
213
90.98
2.82
4.58
0.61
0.27
0.65
92.84
163.7 26
3.04
90.38
2.94
4.09
0.10
90.88
166.78 27
2.69 29
89.36
2.78
3.99
0.09
0.62
0.26
93.4
161.86 28
2.73 30
203
89.41
2.8
3.74
93.05
171.14 KG

20. Madison Bumgarner KG

21. Comparing #2 and #3 Significant gap Present value is the downfall
Substantial difference in WAR

22. Translating performance into dollars
KG -> SW
Translating performance into dollars

23. salary 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jose Fernandez 635,000 ARB Chris Sale
3,500,000
6,000,000
9,150,000
12,000,000
(12,500,000)
Madison Bumgarner
3,750,000
6,750,000
9,750,000
11,500,000
(12,000,000)
Clayton Kershaw
4,000,000
30,000,000
32,000,000
33,000,000
33,000,00
SW Jose Fernandez’s second year could increase based on performance, 635,000 is guaranteed  major league minimum
Bumgarner’s 2018 salary is guaranteed if pitches more than 200 innings in 2017

24. Surplus value 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jose Fernandez Chris Sale
26,365,000
27,887,500
19,898,750
20,290,000
20,670,000
Chris Sale
26,850,000
25,620,000
24,450,000
24,365,000
25,477,500
Madison Bumgarner
20,500,000
19,372,500
17,448,750
15,795,000
16,416,250
Clayton Kershaw
35,900,000
11,838,000
11,698,000
12,261,000
13,728,000 SW

26. Valuation methodologySW
Valuation methodology

27. Salary prediction Impossible to estimate arbitration salary
Similar pitchers receiving extensions
Fernandez salary projection: 3 year 33 Million
2016: $10M
2017: $11M
2018: $12M SW

28. SW -> AO
Assessment of risk

29. Jose Fernandez Risk Factor: High Why it’s risky:
He only has one year of service in the MLB
There is a high flame out rate for pitchers
What we believe:
Jose Fernandez will have a very successful career
Rebuttal:
Jose had one of the best rookie pitching seasons of all-time AO

30. Chris Sale Risk Factor: Moderate Why it’s risky:
Chris Sale’s arm action and body type could lead to injuries in the future
What we believe:
Chris Sale is going to continue to be the #2 LHP in baseball behind Clayton Kershaw
Rebuttal:
Sale hasn’t had any injury problems since breaking into the majors
AO – Mention Surplus Value for our beliefs

31. Madison Bumgarner Risk Factor: Low Why it’s risky:
He’s thrown a high number of innings (614.1 IP) at a very young age (21 through 23) in his 3 full Major League seasons
What we believe:
Bumgarner, much like Sale will continue to be one of the best lefties in the game
Rebuttal:
Bumgarner has improved in each of his MLB seasons and hasn’t shown any signs of wear and tear
AO – Mention surplus value

32. AO -> MT
Player makeup

33. Jose Fernandez Vocally intense Fiery
“Mound presence and makeup are off the charts”
– Juan Rodriguez, Miami-Sun Sentinel MT

34. Chris Sale Stays calm while pitching Left Handed
“Strong mental makeup”
– Rick Hahn, Chicago White Sox General Manager MT

35. Madison bumgarner Competitive Even-Tempered Left Handed
“His makeup is off the charts”
– Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants Manager MT

36. KG
conclusion

37. Conclusion
Starting Pitcher Rating
Surplus value
Sustainability

38. References Fangraphs. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.fangraphs.com/
Petti, B. (2012, May 2). Pitcher aging curves: Starters and relievers. Retrieved from
Baseball reference. (n.d.). Retrieved from
Silver, N. (2007). Pecota under the hood. Nate Silver, Baseball Prospectus, Retrieved from Silver ppt&oq=Nate Sil&aqs=chrome.0.69i59l2j69i57j0l3.3411j0j4&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=93&ie =UTF-8​

39. Objection Starting Pitcher Rating dropped over years of contact.
Ended at in 2018

40. Objection – Part 2
Player IP
ERA K
WHIP
Yu Darvish (25)
190
3.9
221
1.28
Yu Darvish (26)
210
2.83
277
1.07
Justin Verlander (25)
201
4.84
163
1.4
Justin Verlander (26)
240
3.45
269
1.17
Both have roughly a 28% increase in ERA and 17% increase in WHIP from age 25 to 26

42. Objection 6 Million Per Marginal Win (WAR)
5% Inflation from previous year
Example-(4*6,000,000)*.05+Previous Year Surplus Value

44. Objection Justin Verlander 5 year $80 Million Age 27
Felix Hernandez 5 year $78 Million
Age 24
Larger markets than Miami

46. Objection

48. Objection Likely not playing in 2014 season Unknown recovery
Kris Medlen 2nd surgery
Brian Wilson
Adam Wainwright
Jordan Zimmerman
Limiting risk