22. 3DVar
EnKF

33. Radar reflectivity (composite), 2113 UTC 25 August

48. Future directions for DA
Maturing and continuing: use of remote sensors
Still in research and development: adaptive, integrated forecast systems
The frontier: small scales and short range
Other physical systems

49. Use of remote sensing Not my expertise!
Maturing: “great leap forward” for radiances
Dealing with future observations
High density: correlations, thinning, compression
“Moist” variables, particularly cloud and precip
Obs not yet used effectively (imagers)
Network design: What obs do we need?

50. Adaptive, integrated forecast systems
Unite probabilistic forecasting and DA
Adaptive: system can change based on need
E.g., change obs network to improve specified forecast
E.g., select “most important” obs to assimilate
Self-regulating: system diagnoses errors (at least) and corrects
E.g., evaluation of model-error hypotheses
E.g., parameter estimation

51. Small scales & short range
Models will soon resolve convection
Usage of high-density observations (space and ground-based sensors)
Fundamentally different from large scales
Different dynamics
Models untested
Predictability different