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MWO 56.81% vs S&P % (diff %)
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DISCLOSURE
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“If you’re terrific in this business, you’re right six out of 10”
(Peter Lynch)
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FREE CASH FLOW
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One of the biggest content providers around the world
Reaching around 1.2 billion households around the world
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Discovery: MCAP: $21.5 billion Share: $29.00 (DISCK) Net debt: ~$18 billion (Q2 2018) EV: ~$40 billion FY 2018: FCF of $1.5 billion P/FCF: ~14X (not so cheap, right?)
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John Malone I used to go to shareholder meetings and someone would ask about earnings, and I’d say, ‘I think you’re in the wrong meeting’.
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Discovery: IPO
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Discovery: 5 years
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Discovery: 2 years
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Why Is The Stock Down? Discovery took on debt to acquire Scripps for roughly $14.6 billion The buybacks stopped
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Industry Problems There is huge competitive challenge going on between scripted and unscripted content. Amazon; Netflix; Apple, YouTube Premium.
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Discovery Problems 1) Focus on paying down debt; presently looking to finish Q at 4X; FY 2019 early 2020 at 3.5X.
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-Large FCF Margin -Stable FCF -Growing FCF
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Catalyst??
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Catalyst?? 1/2 Skinny Bundles ‘something that's quite unusual’
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Catalyst?? 2/2 Direct To Consumer
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Catalyst?? Direct To Consumer
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Close to 50-70% upside (easily)
Fair Value: - At a minimum $30 billion mcap $48-50 per share At least P/FCF of 10X Close to 50-70% upside (easily)
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