1. Summary of Lesson 3: Part I
Conditional probabilities and causal reasoning
People prefer to interpret the conditioning event (represented by the variable behind the slash) of a conditional probability as the cause of the other event (represented by the variable in front of the slash)
Conditional probabilities do not carry any information about causal directions or causal influences.
Non-monotonic conditional probabilities (CP):
Adding an additional event to the conditioning set can result in a complete reordering of probabilities.
Simpson’s paradox.

2. Summary of Lesson 3: Part II
Non-monotonic conditional probabilities (CP):
The leads to the problem of the proper reference class (=class, that is determined by the conditioning variables).
Exercise 4-4: Alan M. Dershowitz, a Harvard professor and advisor to the O. J. Simpson defense team stated on U.S. television that only about 0.1% of wife batterers actually murder their wives and claimed that therefore evidence of abuse and battering should not be admissible in a murder trial. What is the problem with this line of reasoning?

3. Summary of Lesson 3: Part III
Asymmetric conditional probabilities (CP):
Exercise 4-2:
Prevalence of a disease: 0.3%
Sensitivity of a diagnosis: 90%
Rate of false alarms: 3%
Let:
D = disease (present).
+ = positive diagnosis.
Explain, why 𝑃 + 𝐷 is higher than 𝑃 𝐷 + .

4. Summary of Lesson 3: Part IV
Base rates and base rate neglect:
In view of diagnostic information people ignore base rate information, i.e. information about the preva- lence of a characteristic in the population (without diagnostic information)
This is also the case if the diagnostic information is of no use.
Causal base rates (i.e. base rates that carry a causal information) are not ignored.

5. Summary of Lesson 3: Part V
Dual process theories and judgmental errors:
Two modes of processing:
Intuitive: Quick, effortless, unconscious, error loaded;
Reflective: Slow, effortful, conscious, correcting for errors.
Judgmental errors are due to System 1 processes that are not corrected by System 2 processes.
Example: Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT): Items elicit a wrong intuitive response that comes to mind immediately.

6. Summary of Lesson 3: Part VI
Dual process theories and judgmental errors:
Criticisms:
Missing accordance concerning the characteristics.
Different modes of automatic processing.
Explanatory power of dual processing theories for explaining judgment and decision biases.