1. WECC 2019 Scenarios – Scoping
Michael Bailey, PE
System Adequacy Planning - WECC
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

2. Study Approach Development
Scenarios & 2019 RAC Study Program
Quantum Planning Group Action Item (Sep 28, 2018)
2038 Reliability Assessment Study Approach
Key Questions
Study Horizons
Reliability Impacts
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

3. Study Program Drivers 2018-2019 Study Program Board Priorities
Study Requests
Priority Reliability Issues
Scenario Development
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

4. Scenarios & 2019 RAC Study Program
Three Tracks:
Phase 1
Scenarios
Phase 2
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

5. Scenarios & 2019 RAC Study Program
Three Tracks:
Phase 1
Scenarios
Phase 2
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

6. Study Program Baseline Schedule
1 day
Study Program Approval
Jan 28
15 days
Create Project Teams
Jan 28 - Feb 15
10 days
Define Assessment Scope
Feb 4 - Feb 15
50 days
Determine Modeling Approach
Feb 11 - Apr 19
40 days
Identify Data Needs
Feb 25 - Apr 19
25 days
Conduct Assessments
Apr 22 - May 24
30 days
Create Report
May 27 - Jul 5
40 days
Prepare Final Report
Jul 8 - Aug 30
2019
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2019
Today
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

7. Scenario Studies Schedule
SC2 & EWCC Scoping
Create Project Teams
1 day
SC1, SC3, SC4 Scoping
15 days
SC2 & EWCC Studies
10 days
SC1, SC3, SC4 Studies
50 days
Review Preliminary Results
40 days
25 days
Final Study Runs
30 days
Prepare Draft Report
40 days
Final Review
Final Report
2019
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2019
Today
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

8. 2019 Scenario Matrix Scenario 1: Open Market, Restricted Choices
Scenario 2: Open Market, High Choice
Scenario 3: High Mandates, Restricted Choices
Scenario 4: High Mandates, High Choice
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

9. Scenario-Based Assessments
Scenario 1: Open Market, Restricted Choices
Scenario 2: Open Market, High Choice
Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change
Scenario 3: High Mandates, Restricted Choices
Scenario 4: High Mandates, High Choice
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

10. Scenario-Based Assessments
Scenario 1: Open Market, Restricted Choices
Scenario 2: Open Market, High Choice
Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change
Scenario 3: High Mandates, Restricted Choices
Scenario 4: High Mandates, High Choice
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

11. Scenario Studies Schedule
SC2 & EWCC Scoping
Create Project Teams
1 day
SC1, SC3, SC4 Scoping
15 days
SC2 & EWCC Studies
10 days
SC1, SC3, SC4 Studies
50 days
Review Preliminary Results
40 days
25 days
Final Study Runs
30 days
Prepare Draft Report
40 days
Final Review
Final Report
2019
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2019
Today
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

12. Scenario Development Tasks
2018 (Completed)
2019 (To Do)
Survey
Focus Question
Drivers
Matrix
Narratives
Create/Submit RA Proposals
Scoping
Trends & Early Indicators
Perform Studies
Analyze Results
Review Results
Publish Results
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

13. Scoping Scenario Studies
Create Project Teams
Establish Linkages to WECC Priorities and Reliability Assurance
Define Study Horizons
Define Reporting Metrics
Define Modeling Approach
Tools
Models
Methods
Data & Metrics
Partnerships
Develop SOWs
Develop Workplans
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

14. Keeping the Momentum Going
SDS Next Steps
Keeping the Momentum Going
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

15. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
SDS Discussion Items
SDS Discussion Items (
2038 Reliability Assessment Study Approach
2019 Scenario Reliability Assessment Proposals
Scenario Planning Website (
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

16. Scenario-Based Assessments
Scenario 1: Open Market, Restricted Choices
Scenario 2: Open Market, High Choice
Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change
Scenario 3: High Mandates, Restricted Choices
Scenario 4: High Mandates, High Choice
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

17. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Scenario 2
Assessment #S2: WECC Scenario #2 Open Market, High Choice
Includes:
PRAI #5 (WECC Scenario #2 Open Market, High Choice)
Key Reliability Questions:
As distributed resources become significant, what infrastructure changes and upgrades in the BPS and distribution systems might be needed for system integration, co-optimization, and coordinated operations?
Potential ERS Impacts:
Reduction to frequency response after a disturbance
Limitations to ramping ability
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

18. Scenario 2 – Questions (Part 1)
2.1 As distributed resources, both in front of and behind the meter become significant and integrated load serving resources:
What infrastructure changes and upgrades in both the BPS and distribution systems might be needed for system integration, co-optimization, and coordinated operations?
Where are these changes and upgrades needed; what would they cost, who would pay for them, and how would their costs be allocated among customers?
What unique changes would be needed to integrate behind-the-meter (BTM) residential and small business self-generation?
What timeline would the changes and upgrades play out over, and how would states and provinces differ in their timing?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

19. Scenario 2 – Questions (Part 2)
2.1 As distributed resources, both in front of and behind the meter become significant and integrated load serving resources:
What infrastructure changes and upgrades in both the BPS and distribution systems might be needed for system integration, co-optimization, and coordinated operations?
Where are these changes and upgrades needed; what would they cost, who would pay for them, and how would their costs be allocated among customers?
What unique changes would be needed to integrate behind-the-meter (BTM) residential and small business self-generation?
What timeline would the changes and upgrades play out over, and how would states and provinces differ in their timing?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

20. Scenario-Based Assessments
Scenario 1: Open Market, Restricted Choices
Scenario 2: Open Market, High Choice
Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change
Scenario 3: High Mandates, Restricted Choices
Scenario 4: High Mandates, High Choice
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

21. Energy-Water-Climate Change
Assessment #S5: WECC Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
Includes:
PRAI #8 (WECC Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario)
Key Reliability Questions:
What potential risks to the reliability of the Bulk Electric System in the Western Interconnection would result through changes to the climate?
What potential geographic shifts in electricity demand due to changing demographics driven by reactions to increased global warming and extreme weather events might occur in the region?
Potential ERS Impacts:
Reduction to frequency response after a disturbance
Limitations to ramping ability
Resource inadequacy
Transmission inadequacy
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

22. Scenario 5 – Questions (Part 1)
5.1 What potential risks to the reliability of the Bulk Electric System in the Western Interconnection would result through changes to the climate, and how would those changes impact the electrical reliability of the Western Interconnection?
How might the generation resource portfolio change due to climate change related events?
How might the utilization of the bulk electric transmission system change due to climate change related events?
What operational challenges may arise in both the BPS due to climate change-related events?
What impacts will climate change have on the operating and maintenance costs of the bulk transmission system?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

23. Scenario 5 – Questions (Part 2)
5.2 What potential geographic shifts in electricity demand due to changing demographics driven by reactions to increased global warming and extreme weather events might occur in the region?
How might load growth patterns and characteristics change due to climate change related events?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

24. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Tools & Paradigms
Tool-Based Approach
What can we learn from PCM analyses?
What can we learn from power flow analyses?
Risk-Based Approach
What potential future reliability risks should we be thinking about?
How can we study them?
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

25. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Horizons & Tools
Near Term (5 Year)
Power System Analysis (PSA)
Production Cost (PCM)
Mid Term (5 to 10 Year)
Production Cost
Power System Analysis
Capital Expansion (CapEx)
Long Term (10 to 20 Year)
Capital Expansion
Near Term (5 Year)
Historical Trends
Current Trends
Mid Term (5 to 10 Year)
Expected Futures
Long Term (10 to 20 Year)
Future Drivers
Plausible Futures
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

26. Horizons & Tools & Focus
Near Term (5 Year)
Power System Analysis (PSA)
Production Cost (PSM)
Mid Term (5 to 10 Year)
Production Cost
Power System Analysis
Capital Expansion (CapEx)
Long Term (10 to 20 Year)
Capital Expansion
Near Term (5 Year)
Historical Trends
Current Trends
Mid Term (5 to 10 Year)
Expected Futures
Long Term (10 to 20 Year)
Future Drivers
Plausible Futures
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

27. Start With the End in Mind
Scenario Narratives
Reliability Questions
Results Metrics
Tools, Models, Methods, Partnerships
Data Metrics
Stakeholder Engagement
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

28. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Smart Results Metrics
Specific (simple, sensible, significant).
Measurable (meaningful, motivating).
Achievable (agreed, attainable).
Relevant (reasonable, realistic and resourced, results-based).
Time bound (time-based, time limited, time/cost limited, timely, time-sensitive).
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

29. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Smart Results Metrics
Specific (portfolio mix).
Measurable (annual MWh, installed MW).
Achievable (viable, PSA/PCM/CapEx).
Relevant (answers a reliability question).
Time bound (5, 10, 20 year horizons).
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

30. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Scoping Process
Reliability Question
Results Metrics
Tools, Models
Study Approach
Modeling Metrics
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

31. Scenario Studies Schedule
SC2 & EWCC Scoping
Create Project Teams
1 day
SC1, SC3, SC4 Scoping
15 days
SC2 & EWCC Studies
10 days
SC1, SC3, SC4 Studies
50 days
Review Preliminary Results
40 days
25 days
Final Study Runs
30 days
Prepare Draft Report
40 days
Final Review
Final Report
2019
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2019
Today
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

32. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
SDS Next Steps
Create project teams
Develop workplans aligned with study schedule
Scope study approaches
Engage with other committees
Monitor / review / assist
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

33. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Questions?
Michael Bailey, PE Senior Staff Engineer WECC – System Adequacy
Western Electricity Coordinating Council