1. EMBEDDING TRANSFORMATIVE PRIORITIES INTO THE STI LANDSCAPE
The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011
EMBEDDING TRANSFORMATIVE PRIORITIES INTO THE STI LANDSCAPE
EXPERIENCE FROM THE BMBF-FORESIGHT SYSTEM
Philine Warnke
Fraunhofer ISI

2. Embedding Transformative Priorities
Point of departure
RTI priorities for the “grand challenges of our time” are different from thematic ones not only in content but also in kind.
Reason: need to align social and technological innovation to modulate socio-technical co-evolution pathways

3. Transformative Priorities – tentative characteristics Shared Inclusive
Embedding Transformative Priorities
Transformative Priorities – tentative characteristics
Shared
Inclusive
Hybrid
Experimental
(Extra)-systemic
Glocal
High potential for Foresight to contribute to generation of TPs
provided that methodological potential is fully exploited

4. Transformative Priorities emerging in recent Foresight exercises ...
Embedding Transformative Priorities
Observation
Transformative Priorities emerging in recent Foresight exercises ...
Better life space – space for life and growth
Forsk2015 Denmark
Progressive coupling of urban development, physical planning and social progress
What does the “greying” of society mean?
NL Horizon scan
Understanding socio-cultural change in an aging society
Manufacturing on demand UK TIF
Distributed localised manufacturing of personalised products with rapid manufacturing technologies and new business and service models

5. BUT generation is not enough
Embedding Transformative Priorities
BUT generation is not enough
Transformative Priorities challenge existing organisational structures which are organised according to established paradigm
Specific effort is required of embedding them into actors’ strategic processes

6. Experience from Germany
Embedding Transformative Priorities
Experience from Germany
Priorities with transformative potential identified in Foresight process
ProductionConsumption2.0
Systemic socio-technical innovation towards sustainable patterns of production and consumption.
Human-Technology Cooperation
Transdisciplinary research on new formations of humans and technology
In spite of high recognition by several actors implementation proves challenging. Boundary spanning work required.

7. BMBF Approach: Foresight System Main elements
Embedding Transformative Priorities
BMBF Approach: Foresight System
Main elements
Strategic Dialogues with key actors inside BMBF and RTI landscape fostering appropriation and embedding (c.f. Lohr& Hallensleben)
Monitoring system observing TPs advising complementary measures and preparing subsequent scanning phase
Embedded evaluation

8. Function of Monitoring System
Embedding Transformative Priorities
Function of Monitoring System
Foresight System: Continuous, iterative, learning
Scanning I
Analysis I
Integration, Implementation
Scanning II
Analysis II
Monitoring System:
Tracking of results
Observation of framework conditions
Systematic preparation of next phase
Support for implementation
Systematic Foresight: Constant provision of information for strategic decision making
Bode and Beyer-Kutzner 2010

9. Several elements being implemented in different ways
Embedding Transformative Priorities
Experience to date
Several elements being implemented in different ways
but at the same time transformative perspective being “safeguarded” by the monitoring system

10. implementation requires a much stronger effort.
Embedding Transformative Priorities
Conclusions
Foresight may have a crucial role to play in generating transformative RTI priorities with an impact on GCs if methodological potential is fully exploited
implementation requires a much stronger effort.
A substantial move towards adaptive and embedded Foresight systems as initiated by BMBF seems adequate