1. Population

2. Dependency Ratio
The number of people who are too young or too old to work, compared to the number of people in their productive years

3. Dependency Ratio 0-15 = Dependents 16-64 = Workers 65+ = Dependents
Higher the #,
greater the burden
DR = Number of Dependents (0-15 and 65+)
Number of Working-age (16-64)
X 100

4. Dependency Ratio Implications
Society incurs costs in supporting its dependent population.
Old age generates social costs:
Retirement benefits/social security
Increased medical expenditures.
USA: 12% of the population over 65 accounting for 60% of health care costs.
Greater consumption of other social services.
Youths:
Some medical costs.
Great expenditures for education.
National budgets often reflect these expenditures.
Linked with the population pyramid:
Pyramidal distributions have high dependency ratios.
“Rectangular” distributions have high dependency ratios.
Transitional pyramids have low dependency ratios.

5. Population 60 and Over, Industrial and Developing Countries, 1950-95, With Projections to 2050
Source: Worldwatch Institute.

6. Population under the age of 15 - usually shown as a percentage of the total population of a country - dependency age is 0-15

7. Percentage of the Population between 15 and 65, 2000

8. Gender Ratio Gender (Sex) Ratio: number of males per hundred females
In general more males are born than females
Males have higher death rates
Examples:
Europe and North America = 95:100
Rest of World = 102:100

9. Gender Ratio – Developing Countries
Have large % of young people –where males generally outnumber females
Lower % of older people – where females are typically more numerous
High immigration = more males

10. The Population Explosion

11. Population Explosion—a recent event
Last 200 years or less for MDCs
Industrial Revolution
Improvement in sanitation and medicine
Last 50 years or less for LDCs
Transfer of technology, i.e. medical, agricultural (Green Revolution)

12. The Population Clock

13. Population Change Beginning Population Plus Births Minus Deaths
Plus In-Migrants
Minus Out-Migrants
Ending Population

14. The population pyramid displays the age
POPULATION STRUCTURE
The population pyramid displays the age
and sex structure of a country or given area
OLD DEPENDANTS
ECONOMICALLY
ACTIVE
YOUNG
DEPENDANTS
Population in
Five Year
Age bands
FEMALES
To the right
MALES
To the left
Usually, but not always,
In % to make for easier
comparisons
between countries

15. What Population Pyramids Show Us
KEY
Economically
More
Developed
Country
Economically
Less
Developed
Country
slope of pyramid indicate the death rate
width of the base is related to birth rate/fertility rate
proportions of men and women can suggest male or female migrations
height of graph can indicate life expectancy (ignore the very thin end of the wedge as occurs on graph B as these people are a definite minority)
"kinks" indicate dramatic reductions in birth rate or increases in death rate in the past
area of graph indicates total population - compare areas of different population age groups or different sex on one graph
The overall shape of the population pyramid can indicate whether it is an
Economically More Developed Country or Economically Less Developed Country

16. Population Pyramids related to the Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
IMPLICATIONS
Both birth rates and
Death rates are
High, so population
growth rates are
slow but population
Is usually restored
Due to high birth
Rate. Short life
Expectancy
EXAMPLES
Population starts
to grow at an
exponential rate due to fall in Crude Death Rate. More living In middle age.
Life expectancy rises
Infant mortality rate falls.
EXAMPLES
Population continues
to grow but at slower
rate. Low C Death Rate.
Dramatically declining
Crude Birth Rate.
EXAMPLES
Low Crude Birth Rate
and Crude Death Rate
Higher dependancy ratio
and longer life expectancy
Crude Death Rate does
Rise slightly because of
The ageing population
EXAMPLES
Scotland today.
Japan, USA
Scotland before 1760
New Guinea
Remote parts of
Amazonia
Scotland
Algeria, Tunisia
Morocco
Scotland
Republic of Congo
There is some merit in including or considering
a Stage 5 today with a declining population

17. Rapid Growth A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
Large number of young people and a smaller older population

18. Fast Growth

19. Slow Growth A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
Large number of “older people”
Smaller % of young people

20. Slow Growth

21. No Growth End of stage 4 Large number of “older people”
Very small % of young people

22. Negative Growth

23. Population Pyramid of Mexico, 20001
Population Pyramid of Mexico, 2000
Source: US Census Bureau, International Database

24. Population Pyramid of Sweden, 20001
Population Pyramid of Sweden, 2000
Source: US Census Bureau, International Database

25. Population Pyramid Mexican pyramid Much wider base than the others.
Beginning of transition.
Rapidly growing population where the percentage of people under 15 years of age is high.
Sweden’s pyramid
Does not appear to be a pyramid at all.
Youngest component is smaller than its middle-aged population and only slightly larger than its aged population.
No-growth situation, since some deaths occur from all age groupings.
Sweden has a higher death rate than Mexico.

26. Birth Fluctuations & Age Structure
Source: PRB, Population Bulletin, V58, N4, p27.

27. Population Pyramid, Berlin 1946

28. 1 Population Pyramid German pyramid
Shows the most extreme example of population decline.
Vast difference between males and females in the upper age groups.
Vast number of military casualties among the population which fought the WWII.
Significant impacts in the post WWII labor market.

29. Population Pyramid Summary for United States: 1950, 2025, 2050

31. Population Woes for East Asia
China
1/5th of the world’s population
One-child policy-implemented in 1979, prevented over 400 million births. Reduced TFR from 5.3 to 1.5
Fall in fertility rates due to improving economic and social factors in urban areas
Late-term abortions encouraged
Baby girls sold for average of $3,000/baby
Couples are fined $3,000 per additional child beyond one in urban areas
WHAT WILL THEIR FUTURE PYRAMID RESEMBLE?
Japan
1970s-BR 2.1/2010-BR 1.26
Japanese are living longer
Highest proportion of elderly in the world
Currently 20% of population is over 65
By % will be over 65
WHAT WILL THEIR FUTURE PYRAMID RESEMBLE?

32. DECLINING JAPANESE POPULATION
The fertility rate needed to ensure that the population remains constant as each set of parents is replaced by its offspring. The replacement fertility rate is a little more than 2, usually around 2.2 to account for the deaths of children
Total fertility rates
0.5 1
1.5 2
1.44
1.65
1.24
1.66
2.06
Globalization & Diversity: Rowntree, Lewis, Price, Wyckoff

33. PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION
JAPAN’S AGE DISTRIBUTION
PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION
1990
2025
AGE GROUP
Years % 14.9%
15-24 Years 15.4% 11.6%
25-64 Years 54.5% 49.6%
Years 11.7% 23.9%
______________________________________________________
100% 100%
SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS WORLD POPULATION
PROSPECTS 1990 (NEW YORK: UNITED NATIONS, 1991)
Globalization & Diversity: Rowntree, Lewis, Price, Wyckoff

34. Why Asia’s Greying Matters
Asia, long associated with its youthful armies of factory workers, is growing older fast. That threatens to slow the region’s turbo-charged growth in the years to come, and means investors will need to shift their Asian holdings to match the region’s maturing profile.
For some, that could mean shifting over time from markets in greying nations, such as China, South Korea and Taiwan, and into Asia’s more youthful economies – India, Indonesia and the Philippines.
Asia’s population is aging faster than any other region’s. While Japan’s population is already shrinking, in others population growth is slowing to nearly a halt. The average number of children born to women in South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore is currently the lowest in the world, according to the CIA World Factbook.
The result is a declining number of workers due to retirement, and this means losing productivity due to not having the numbers of young labor to replace.

35. Worst Population Pyramid EVER!!

36. Development New Zealand Australia HDI 0.939 (2nd best to Norway!)
Pop. Almost 25 million
HDI (13th overall)
Pop. 4.7 million

37. Like most of the developed world New Zealand has a “Graying Population”

38. Twizzler Population Pyramids
In your groups
Work together to use data table to create population pyramid; you must first calculate all percentages
Be ready to show the rest of class and explain why you think it is in the shape it is in

39. Be prepared to discuss the following with the class…
What does the shape of your pyramid tell us about their population? (BR/DR/TFR)
What does your pyramid tell us about the dependents?
Is your pyramid of an LDC or MDC? How can you tell?
What do any BULGES or INDENTS tell us?