1. Fall 2011 Economic Survey

2. Participation
33 CEBI Members
26 Non-Members

3. Industry Distribution

4. Company Size

5. Expected 2011 Results

6. 2012 Outlook

7. 2013 Expectations

8. Composite

9. 2011 Forecast (vs. 2010)
26%
74%

10. 2012 Forecast (vs. 2011)
10%
90%

11. 23 companies w/ Flat or Down 2011 Earnings
Negative Impacts
23 companies w/ Flat or Down Earnings
Other: Price Pressure
Raw Mtl. Costs
Federal Govt.
State Budgets
< New Prod Dev

12. Expected Upturn Quarter

13. Earnings Improvement Factors
Other:
New Products/Services
New Markets
Expand Geography
Cap. Exp. – SB Loan
Concierge Service

14. Likelihood of Recession (next 2-3 quarters)
2012 Avg. or Better = 76%
2013 Avg. or Better = 76%
55%
45%

17. What Have You Learned?
Ignore Media & Govt. – Follow your own indicators
Watch for changes, good or bad = opportunities
Cull the Herd – bottom 10%
Act sooner, rather than later
Acquisition of weaker competitors
Pay down debt, don’t count on banks, cash is king
In Information Age, things change faster than ever
Conservative capital and expense plans, watch receivables, fixed costs

18. What Have You Learned? Improve productivity through technology
Sales cycles lengthen – step up sales activity
Watch inventories, but don’t understock (recovery)
Invest in innovation, R&D
Maintain customer service performance

19. CEBI Helped Health care cost reduction
Explore different channels, including Web
Product/service diversification
Peer lending, heads-up on tightening credit
Focus on systems and processes
Members’ perspective on “real” economy
Cost reduction strategies
Strategies for dealing with banks

20. Summary “CEBI 2012 Confidence Index” = .88 (38 up, 5 dn)
“CEBI 2012 Growth Index” Mean = +10%
“CEBI 2012 Profit Index” Mean = +10%

22. Fall 2011 Economic Survey