1. Ag Economic Outlook Ohnward Bank & Trust Town Hall Meeting
Monticello, Iowa
Dec. 16, 2014
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.2
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
152.8
147.2
123.1
158.8
173.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,447
12,360
10,755
13,925
14,407
Beg. Stocks
1,708
1,128
989
821
1,236
Imports 28 29
160 36 25
Total Supply
14,182
13,517
11,904
14,782
15,668
Feed & Residual
4,795
4,557
4,315
5,132
5,375
Ethanol
5,019
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,150
Food, Seed, & Other
1,407
1,428
1,397
1,363
1,395
Exports
1,834
1,543
730
1,917
1,750
Total Use
13,055
12,528
11,083
13,546
13,670
Ending Stocks
1,998
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.8
84.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
43.5
41.9
40.0
44.0
47.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,329
3,094
3,042
3,358
3,958
Beg. Stocks
151
215
169
141 92
Imports 14 16 41 72 15
Total Supply
3,495
3,325
3,252
3,570
4,065
Crush
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,780
Seed & Residual
130 88
105 98
115
Exports
1,501
1,365
1,317
1,647
1,760
Total Use
3,280
3,155
3,111
3,478
3,655
Ending Stocks
410
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
11.30
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

7. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

8. Corn Grind for Ethanol

9. Current Corn Futures
4.13
3.82
Source: CME Group, 12/12/2014

10. Current Soybean Futures
10.21
9.88
Source: CME Group, 12/12/2014

11. Corn Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

12. 2015/16 Crop Margins

13. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Record corn and soybean crops, but also record demand
Markets are in a holding pattern, waiting for news
Watching South American crop progress
Projected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops
2013/14
USDA
2014/15
Futures
(12/12/14)
2015/16
Corn
$4.46
$3.50
$3.82
$4.13
Soybeans
$13.00
$10.00
$10.21
$9.88

14. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

15. Quarterly Hog & Pork Forecasts (LMIC:12/4/2014)
Change
Average
Commercial
from
Carcass
Pork
Year
Slaughter
Year Ago
Weight
Production
Quarter
(1,000 hd)
(%)
(lbs)
(mil lbs)
2013 I
27,864
-0.9
208
-0.5
5,775
-1.4 II
26,765
0.4
206
5,516
-0.1
III
27,657
-1.1
204
1.2
5,622
-0.2 IV
29,792
-2.1
211
2.6
6,274
0.5
112,077
-1.0
207
0.7
23,187
-0.3
2014
27,134
-2.6
213
2.7
5,785
0.2
25,574
-4.4
215
4.4
5,504
25,554
-7.6
212
4.2
5,423
-3.5
28,922
-2.9
214
1.4
6,189
107,184
3.2
22,902
-1.2
2015
26,951
-0.7
0.9
5,799
26,341
3.0
-0.4
5,649
26,325
0.0
5,588
29,894
3.4
6,426
3.8
109,511
2.2
23,462
2.4
2016
28,263
4.9
216
6,096
5.1
27,037
5,810
2.9
27,049
2.8
0.3
5,758
30,462
1.9
6,558
2.1
112,811
24,222

16. Data Source: USDA/AMS

17. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

18. U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Sep 2014
Sep-14/Aug-14
Sep-14/Sep-13
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Japan
-4.3%
-21.1%
-42,448
-4.2%
Mexico
2.7%
15.7%
149,153
17.2%
Canada
13.5%
3.2%
-25,664
-5.9%
China (Mainland)
38.1%
-83.4%
-90,934
-24.1%
South Korea
36.1%
178.2%
73,014
36.6%
Russia
85,443
497.1%
Hong Kong
-25.1%
-10.3%
-24,011
-21.8%
Australia
-20.8%
-28.3%
5,833
4.8%
China (Taiwan)
-36.3%
-10,600
-32.8%
Philippines
29.9%
-14.7%
-6,734
-7.6%
Honduras
-16.3%
-19.9%
-9,840
Colombia
-21.6%
9.6%
38,511
60.3%
Other Countries
6.1%
-34.5%
-75,373
-25.8%
Total
-2.4%
-13.2%
66,350
1.8%
WASDE U.S.
Pork Exports (mil lbs)
2013: 4,992
2014: 5,066 (+1.5%)
2015: 5,250 (+3.6%)
Source: USDA/ERS

19. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

20. Quarterly Cattle & Beef Forecasts (LMIC:12/4/2014)
Change
Average
Commercial
from
Dressed
Beef
Year
Slaughter
Year Ago
Weight
Production
Quarter
(1,000 hd)
(%)
(lbs)
(mil lbs)
2013 I
7,781
-3.1
794
1.4
6,175
-1.7 II
8,325
0.2
782
0.4
6,513
0.6
III
8,321
-0.1
0.5
6,609 IV
8,035
-3.0
799
0.7
6,423
-2.3
32,462
-1.5
792
25,720
-0.7
2014
7,375
-5.2
796
0.3
5,868
-5.0
7,836
-5.9
789
0.9
6,183
-5.1
7,630
-8.3
810
1.9
6,178
-6.5
7,508
-6.6
820
2.6
6,157
-4.1
30,349
804
24,386
2015
7,135
-3.3
816
2.5
5,819
-0.8
7,602
803
1.7
6,103
-1.3
7,447
-2.4
818
1.0
6,088
7,407
823
6,097
-1.0
29,591
-2.5
815
24,107
-1.1
2016
7,145
0.1
821
5,865
0.8
7,325
-3.6
808
5,920
7,579
1.8
825
6,252
2.7
7,316
-1.2
828
6,059
-0.6
29,365
24,096
-0.05

21. Data Source: USDA/AMS

22. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

23. Data Source: USDA/AMS

24. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

25. U.S. Beef Exports, Jan-Sep 2014
Sep-14/Aug-14
Sep-14/Sep-13
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Mexico
23.6%
19.6%
52,523
18.6%
Japan
-7.4%
30.2%
-16,031
-3.0%
Canada
-18.1%
-30.1%
-82,815
-22.8%
South Korea
-14.7%
0.6%
38,523
21.5%
Hong Kong
7.2%
-1.5%
57,458
24.8%
China (Taiwan)
-19.8%
5,309
7.3%
Vietnam
-25.4%
63.6%
-3,983
-41.4%
Russia
-96
-78.7%
Egypt
-74.3%
-97.2%
-43,340
-93.6%
Netherlands
20.4%
14.9%
335
1.2%
Philippines
9.3%
14.2%
4,402
25.6%
Other Countries
-21.1%
-9.2%
6,644
4.3%
Total
-4.3%
3.8%
18,928
1.0%
WASDE U.S.
Beef Exports (mil lbs)
2013: 2,590
2014: 2,599 (+0.3%)
2015: 2,525 (-2.8%)
Source: USDA/ERS

26. Net Farm Income

27. Net Farm Income

28. Iowa Land Values
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

29. Iowa Land Values – Log Scale
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

30. Land Values and Income
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

31. Land Values and Income
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

32. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: