1. Building on tradition? The ECA experience
Gero Carletto
DECRG, The World Bank
Jan 24, 2008

2. “If you want to make enemies, try to change something”
Woodrow Wilson

3. “LSMS goes East” Different ways to introduce something new:
The Alexander the Great model
The Talleyrand model
… “The Ultimate Warrior Is A Diplomat”
Alexander the Great: conquer the country
Count d’Orsay: Negotiate; weigh and show pros and cons; demonstrate
Put another way …
Rebuild
Build an Annex
Build an Addition
Move into a new place

4. The context Acquis communautaire
The “old” continent, the new (bad?) attitude
“Engraved” tradition with HBS
Acquis: The body of EU legislation which candidate countries must adopt to become EU members. (chapter 12)
Include a number of requirements for measurement of income, living conditions and welfare

5. The Household Budget Survey
Measurement of living conditions
CPI
Large sample size;
Continuous; sample rotation
Urban only ?
High non-response rate
Sample size: Russia (over 48,000), Poland 36000, Hungary and Ukraine (12000)
100%: costly, poor estimate of change
No rotation (panel): respondent fatigue

6. Non-response rates High and increasing over time; large “instability”
Bulgaria from 33 to 37% from 1993 to 2000 (with peak of 49% in 1997)
Poland from 23 to 49% bet/w 1992 and 2000
Russia from 10 to 16 % in same period with peak of 48% in 1997

7. Goals often similar … Provide needed data … yesterday!
Improve efficiency
Simplify, standardize
Sustainability
Continuity
Generate demand
Ownership

8. However … Data needs but … what type of data? Conflicting agendas
Poverty, multi-sector, CPI, NA, …
Conflicting agendas
Sample size, domains of inference
Short-term vs. long-term goals
Timeline
Data quality, Non-response rates
Human resources
Financial resources

9. Options “Bulldoze and build” : Albania “The Annex”: Bulgaria
“The Addition”: Kazakhstan
Move out: several other countries

10. Albania: the problem No (comparable) poverty figures
No sector information
Last survey: HBS 2000, urban only
Urgency
Little capacity
The Eurostat factor
But … donor interest, PRSP, eager local counterparts, “donor crack” in statistics, …

11. Albania: the solution LSMS program
multi-year funding
gradual; small sample
Integrated system; scrap HBS for the time being
Focus on capacity building (set smaller goals)
Build demand: data user group
Diary, COICOP, …

12. Bulgaria: the problem 365-day diary; balance sheet
High non-response (pensioners)
Lack of transparency, little training
Very little “excitement” for change
NSO vs. RoB
Data NOW!
Little resources
The Eurostat2 factor
The weather forecast

13. Bulgaria: the solution
Don’t change … even if it is broken!
Outsourced “quick and clean” survey, with NSO involvement (2001)
TFSCB with NSO and MOLSP
BMTHS (2003) and revision of HBS
BUT …
Short time horizon (BMTHS but no revision)
The Eurostat3 factor / accession
Lack of commitment. Sustainability?

14. Kazakhstan: the problem
Long tradition with HBS
Late in the process
Unwillingness to change
Secretive
No resources
No training
ADB, mixed signals
Not enough commitment on both sides

15. Kazakhstan: the solution?
Damage control! Piggybacking.
Analysis with old and quarterly data, data entry (gaining trust; demo)
Add modules according to rotation
Some training
Quality control (data entry)
BUT …
no long-term vision/intention, little commitment, no resources, …

16. In conclusion … Same problem, different solutions!
Albania: not yet accession, positioning/patience, multi-year program/funding, trust
Bulgaria: accession imminent, “double dipping”, mistrust, little resources, multi-institution involvement
KAZ: too late in process, no funding, language

17. If you want to truly understand something, try to change it.
Kurt Lewin
If you want to change something, try to truly understand it