1. February 2017 New Starts Financial Plan
GoTriangle Board of Trustees
January 4, 2017 1

2. Overview New Starts Financial Plan (“Plan”) Plan Development
What is Included in / Excluded from the Plan
Key Updates to the Plan
Financial Health of the Plan
Durham-Orange Light Rail Transit (D-O LRT) Project Capital Funding
Proposed Financing
Accounting for Uncertainties
Main Takeaways
Next Steps 2

3. New Starts Financial Plan
A key piece of GoTriangle’s request for the D-O LRT Project to enter the Engineering phase of the federal funding process
Submitted to Federal Transit Administration (FTA) on Dec. 30, 2016
FTA review to be completed in Feb. 2017
Demonstrates GoTriangle’s financial ability to construct, operate, and maintain an integrated bus and rail transit system 3

4. Plan Development
Incorporated actual revenues and expenditures from D-O Transit Plans
Incorporated studies from consultants (e.g. cost modeling)
Incorporated changes to state and federal funding policies/laws
Updated financial assumptions
New financial advisor, Public Financial Management, began work with GoTriangle in November 2016 4

5. Included in the Plan
GoTriangle’s existing and expansion bus services and capital investments
Local share of transit providers’ expansion bus services and capital investments per the D-O Transit Plans, funded at a higher level than in the original D-O Transit Plans:
GoTriangle
GoDurham
Durham County
Chapel Hill Transit
Orange Public Transportation 5

6. Included in the Plan (cont.)
North-South Corridor Bus Rapid Transit (N-S BRT) Project, managed by Chapel Hill Transit
D-O LRT Project, managed by GoTriangle
Hillsborough Train Station 6

7. Excluded from the Plan
Revenues and expenditures that do not flow through GoTriangle
Other transit providers’ existing services
Revenues received by other transit providers
Wake County Transit Plan revenues and expenditures
Durham-Wake Commuter Rail Transit (D-W CRT) Project 7

8. Key Updates to the Plan
Local share for expansion bus services and capital investments
D-O LRT Project assumptions
N-S BRT Project assumptions
Half-Cent Sales Tax Forecast
Reserves 8

9. Key Updates to the Plan (cont.)
Increased local share for expansion bus services and capital investments
Now includes long-term maintenance of capital projects
Local Funding Shares*
Funding Category
2011 Plan
Feb 2017 Plan
Bus operations and maintenance (O&M)
77.6%
81.8%
Bus purchases
10.0%
65.0%
Bus capital facilities
54.0%
*Percentages and cost estimates based on assumptions from Staff Working Group, to be updated Spring 2017 9

10. Key Updates to the Plan (cont.)
D-O LRT Project assumptions
Construction schedule extended to 2028
Modified scope to include JD and NCCU
Construction Cost of D-O LRT Project (Incl. Contingency) (YOE Millions)
2011 Plan
Feb 2016 Plan
Feb 2017 Plan
Construction completion date
2025
2026
2028
Original scope (UNC-Alston Ave)
$1,823
$2,013
$2,126
Including Joint Development (JD)
n/a
$2,256
Including JD & North Carolina Central University (NCCU)
$2,389
With financing costs
$2,476 10

11. Key Updates to the Plan (cont.)
D-O LRT Project (cont.)
State/Local funding shares
Federal: 50%  50%
State: 25%  10%
Local/Other: 25%  40%
State of Good Repair reserve
Not included in previous financial plans
Totaling $172 million YOE through 2036 11

12. Construction Cost of N-S BRT Project (YOE Millions)
Key Updates to the Plan (cont.)
N-S BRT Project
Modified scope
State/Local/Federal funding shares
Federal: 50%  70%
State: 25%  0%
Local/Other: 25%  30%
Construction Cost of N-S BRT Project (YOE Millions)
Funding Share
2011 Plan
Feb 2017 Plan
Federal
$12.3
$87.9
State
$6.1 $0
Local
$37.7
Total
$24.5
$125.6 12

13. Total through FY 2036 (YOE Millions)
Key Updates to the Plan (cont.)
Half-Cent Sales Tax Forecast
Previous source: Dr. Michael Walden, NCSU
Updated source: Moody’s Analytics
Comparison of Half-Cent Sales Tax Revenue Forecasts,
Total through FY 2036 (YOE Millions)
County
Walden
(2014)
Moody’s Analytics (2016)
Durham
$838.7
$851.9
Orange
$213.7
$196.5
Total
$1,052.4
$1,048.4 13

14. Key Updates to the Plan (cont.)
Reserves now included in Plan
Reserves
Reserve Type
Criteria
Operations and maintenance (O&M)
3 months of system O&M expenses
State of good repair
30% of annualized capital replacement costs or 50% of available cash balance, whichever is lower
Debt service
Limited obligation bonds (LOBs): 10% of par
Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (TIFIA) loan: maximum annual debt service 14

15. Financial Health of the Plan15

16. D-O LRT Project Capital Funding Shares (YOE Millions)
Amount
Percent
Federal
$1,238.2
50.0%
State
$247.6
10.0%
Pay-as-you-go local revenues*
$207.5
8.4%
Local government grants for eligible joint development activities
$19.5
0.8%
Joint development local match
$45.6
1.8%
In-kind right-of-way donations
$19.4
Financing proceeds*
$698.6
28.2%
Total
$2,476.3
100%
* Of these amounts, the D-O Transit Plans currently commit $616.7 million YOE in local revenues through a combination of pay-as-you-go and financing proceeds. 16

17. Financing Uses (YOE Millions) Financing Instruments (YOE Millions)
Proposed Financing
Financing Uses (YOE Millions)
Amount
D-O LRT Project local share
$698.6
Cash flow needs due to Federal and State funding disbursements
$236.4
Total
$935.0
Financing Instruments (YOE Millions)
FY of Drawdown(s)
Amount
LOB, series 1
2024
$120.0
LOB, series 2
2025
$215.0
LOB, series 3
2026
$200.0
TIFIA loan
$400.0
Total*
$935.0
*LOBs are repaid before TIFIA loan repayment begins 17

18. Proposed Financing (cont.)
Repayment Terms (YOE Millions)
Interest Only Payments?
Interest Rates
Repayment Terms
LOBs
Yes
4.0%
4-6 years
TIFIA loan
5.0%
35 years
Total Financing Costs (YOE Millions)
Financing Charges Eligible for 50% Federal Share (through FY 2032)
Total Finance Charges FY
LOBs
$86.9
$89.1
TIFIA loan
$0.8
$116.2
Total
$87.6 (Federal Share = $43.8)
$205.3 18

19. Proposed Financing (cont.)
Full TIFIA loan debt service begins (principal and interest)
Short-term LOBs repaid before TIFIA loan debt service begins (interest only) 19

21. Accounting for Uncertainties
Contingency in D-O LRT capital cost
Reserves
Sensitivity Analyses with additional local revenues
10% capital cost increase for D-O LRT Project (similar to 0% state funding share)
Lower-than-expected sales tax revenues 21

22. Additional Local Revenues Included in Sensitivity Analyses
$25 M
$20 M
Note: Right-of-way donations and Joint Development local shares are now included in the Base Case Scenario
Note: No Additional funds needed prior to 2020. 22

23. 23

24. Main Takeaways
Plan includes higher local funding shares for bus and rail investments than the original D-O Transit Plans
Plan assumptions are more conservative and now include reserves and long-term maintenance
February 2017 Financial Plan eliminates need for additional local funding sources (previously estimated need of $250 million YOE) in base case
Plan still requires additional local funding sources in sensitivity cases 24

25. Next Steps
Apr Update of D-O Transit Plans and execution of full General Engineering Consultant (GEC) and Program Management Consultant (PMC) contracts
Jun Request to be in President’s budget – requires 50% of non-New Starts funds to be committed
Dec Inclusion in Draft STIP - State share defined, but not committed
Jun Inclusion in State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) – State participation committed
Oct Submit request for FFGA with FTA – requires 100% of funding to be committed
Jan Full Funding Grant Agreement (FFGA) with FTA 25

26. Next Steps (cont.) Dec. 2016 Jan.- Apr. 2017 Mar. 2017 Apr. 2017
Deadline for GoTriangle to request entry into FTA Engineering phase for D-O LRT Project
Non-binding MOUs to work with GoTriangle and other community partners to identify funds to complete the D-O LRT Project
The counties are not being asked to invest any additional funds for the project at this time
Revise Financial Plan
Monthly Transit Plan financial updates to County, DCHC-MPO, and GoTriangle Boards
Present for information the full GEC and PMC contracts
County, MPO, and GoTriangle Boards review updated Transit Plans with potential additional revenue assumptions
Execution of GEC and PMC contracts required to maintain proposed construction schedule 26

27. Questions 27

28. 28

29. 29