1. Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Crop/Feed Markets
Mobley Seminar
Ames, Iowa
Dec. 5, 2012
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
96.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
122.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,358
10,725
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
988
Imports 14 8 28 29
100
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,515
11,814
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,795
4,547
4,150
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,500
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,426
1,367
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,834
1,543
1,150
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,167
Ending Stocks
647
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.22
7.60
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,094
2,971
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
169
Imports 13 15 14 16 20
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,160
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,560
Seed & Residual
106
110
130 91
115
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,362
1,345
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,021
Ending Stocks
140
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.90
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Prices

5. Projected Corn Yields

6. Projected Soybean Yields

7. U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
Production
(thou. short tons)
41,707
39,251
41,025
37,150
Beg. Stocks
235
302
350
300
Imports
160
180
216
250
Total Supply
42,101
39,732
41,591
37,700
Domestic
30,640
30,301
31,550
29,500
Exports
11,160
9,081
9,741
7,900
Total Use
41,800
39,382
41,291
37,400
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/short ton)
311.27
345.52
393.53
470.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. U.S. DDG Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Production
(mil. metric tons)
28.6
35.4
38.7
38.6
34.7
Imports
0.3
0.4
0.5
Total Supply
28.9
35.8
39.2
38.9
35.3
Domestic
23.9
27.5
30.9
31.2
Exports
5.0
8.3
7.7
6.6
Total Use
39.1
Average Price
($/ton)
126
114
188
222
255
My estimates, so take with a grain (or pound) of salt 8 8

9. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. World Weather
Source: USDC and USDA 11 11

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Higher feed costs have led to lower meat production projections.
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soybean Meal Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

16. Corn Grind for Ethanol

17. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal.
7.4 bil. gal.
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

18. DDG Exports
Source: USDA

19. DDG Exports
Source: USDA

20. Current Corn Futures
6.87
6.04
5.58
Source: CME Group, 12/4/2012

21. Current Soybean Futures
13.79
12.50
12.13
Source: CME Group, 12/4/2012

22. Early Prices for 2013 Crops
2013 crop prices are still strong to entice acreage to remain in production.

23. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS
We brought back a lot of acres in Can we hold them in 2013?
Source: USDA-NASS

24. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres
Cotton will likely give up acreage again. But with crop prices strong across the board, the acreage battle could be interesting in 2013.
Source: USDA-NASS

25. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011
Weather was great for planting in 2012 (just not for producing). To hold acreage we will need great planting weather again.
Top: Planted in 2012
Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

27. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Soil moisture issues
Biofuel and export strength
Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing
2012/13
USDA
Futures
(12/4/12)
2013/14
Corn
$7.60
$6.87
$6.04
Soybeans
$14.90
$13.79
$12.50

28. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: