1. Discussions about the Role of Nuclear Power for Achieving the Paris Agreement in Japan Yutaka Nagata and Sumio Hamagata Socio-economic Research Center Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Japan

2. Three energy issues for setting Japan's INDC
Self-Sufficiency Rate
Electricity Cost
CO2 Emissions
Only 6.1% in 2013
Raise to close to 25%
- above pre-2011 levels of about 20% -
Fuel cost: 9.2T yen
+ FIT purchase cost: 0.5T yen in 2013
Lower costs from current level
8.4% increase from 2010 to 2013
Set reduction targets comparable with the EU and the US
Current Status
Current Status
Current Status
Target
Target
Target
Not only decreasing CO2 emission, but also improving self-sufficiency rate of energy and lowering electricity costs are important for setting Japan's INDC target.

3. Japan's INDC and power generation mix
GHG Emission
Power generation mix
1408
mil. ton
35%
CO2 emissions factor
0.567kg
-CO2/kWh
0.37kg
-CO2/kWh
1085
TWh
25%
1065
TWh
1042
mil. ton 4%
Other renewables
Hydro 7%
13-15%
Energy-
originated
CO2
1235
mil. ton
687
0.9% 9%
41%
20-22%
Nuclear
LNG
34%
567
27%
TWh
33%
Power
sector
Coal =
548
At least 30GW
360
26%
Oil
15% 3%
2013
2030
2013
2030
Zero emission power 44%. Coal occupies a certain share for energy security and low electricity price.

4. Current status of nuclear power in Japan
under
construction
4.14GW
2 units not filed
1 under review
19 units
to be
decomissioned
Approved 60
years operation
Operated
in 2010
54 units
48.96GW
10 units not filed GW GW GW
11 units
under review
35 units
34.17GW GW
5 units approved
9 units restarted GW
To be
decomissioned
Current status
of investigation
by Start period
of operation
Available capacity in 2030
= GW
As of August10, 2018
JANSI (2018)
Approved 60
years operation
Under
construction
Under 40 years

5. Effects of nuclear deficit on economy
Nuclear power deficit (22→15%)
Model simulation
Increasing in CO2 emission
LNG case
Supplemented by LNG power
Additional decrease
Increase in domestic commodity prices
Cost rise in electricity supply
Renewable Case
Supplemented by solar power
(with FIT charge)
Lose international competitiveness
Additional cost for grid connection and stabilization of intermittency
Accounted
Decrease in GDP
Not accounted

6. Results of model simulation
Cost of electricity supply
Changes in real GDP
Cumulative loss of real GDP until 2030
LNG Case: 11 trillion yen
Renewable Case: 13 trillion yen
Energy-originated CO2 emission
LNG case: +1.9%
Renewable case: ▼0.5%

7. Conclusion
CO2 emission reduction, improving self- sufficiency rate of energy and lowering electricity costs are important for setting Japan's INDC target.
Recovering the use of nuclear power is expected in the target, however, increasing the units which are approved for 60 years operation or constructing new power plants is necessary for it.
By our calculation, non-negligible economic loss may happen if the use of nuclear power will be limited than the target in the INDC.

8. A high barrier: uncertain capital recovery
Increasing uncertainty of capital investment by regulatory reform instead of the traditional rate-of-return regulation
Baseload power market
Capacity market
Traditional ROR regulation
Mix of markets
Balancing market
Non-fossil value trading market
Lots of markets will be prepared to encourage capital investment, but business environment for nuclear power is still unclear.