1. Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

2. Climate Change: Interface with Plant Sciences
Eugene S. Takle
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
Plant Science Institute
Iowa State University
Ames, IA
26 October 2007

3. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2007
380 ppm

4. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2050
550 ppm

6. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

7. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
From Jerry Meehl
This slide shows the time evolution of globally averaged surface air
temperature from multiple ensemble simulations of 20th century climate
from the NCAR Parallel Climate Model (PCM) compared to observations.
The simulations start in the late 19th century, and continue to the year
The temperature scale at left is in degrees Centigrade, and
temperature anomalies are calculated relative to a reference period
averaged from 1890 to The black line shows the observed data, or
the actual, recorded
globally averaged surface air temperatures from the past century. The
blue and red lines are the average of four simulations each from the
computer model. The pink and light blue shaded areas depict the range
of the four simulations for each experiment, giving an idea of the
uncertainty of a given realization of 20th century climate from the
climate model. The blue line shows the average from the four member
ensemble of the simulated time evolution of globally average surface air
temperature when only "natural" influences (solar variability and
volcanic eruptions) are included in the model. Therefore, the blue
line represents what the model says global average temperatures would
have been if there had been no human influences. The red line shows the
average of the four member ensemble experiment when natural forcings AND
anthropogenic influences (greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide,
sulfate aerosols from air pollution, and ozone changes) are included in
the model. Note that this model can reproduce the actual, observed data
very well only if the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic
factors are included. The conclusion that can be drawn is that
naturally occuring influences on climate contributed to most of the
warming that occurred before WWII, but that the large observed
temperature increases since the 1970s can only be simulated in the model
if anthropogenic factors are included.
This confirms the conclusion of the IPCC Third Assessment Report that
most of the warming we have observed in the latter part of the 20th
century has been due to human influences.
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

8. Energy intensive Energy conserving Mitigation Possible Adaptation
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Possible
Mitigation
Necessary
Adaptation
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

10. Tin and Seager

11. Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment)
Longer frost-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)
Lower mean summertime daily max temperature
Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)
More (~10%) precipitation (medium)
More variability of summer precipitation (high)
More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high)
Stronger storm systems (medium)
Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive

12. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

13. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

14. North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Principal Investigator
Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University
Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK
Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada
Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA
Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy
Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada
Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA
Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA

15. NARCCAP PLAN A2 Emissions Scenario GFDL CCSM HADAM3 CGCM3 MM5 RegCM3
link to EU
programs
CGCM3
current
future
Provide boundary conditions
MM5
Iowa State/
PNNL
RegCM3
UC Santa Cruz
ICTP
CRCM
Quebec,
Ouranos
HADRM3
Hadley Centre
RSM
Scripps
WRF
NCAR/
Note: AGCM time slices to be included, too. Initial phase involves driving RCMs with reanalysis output.
NARCCAP IAMAS 2005

16. Potential Plant-Climate Research Issues
Plants that adapt to climate change
Higher yield (seed and/or biomass; above-ground and/or below-ground)
Drought tolerance
Disease resistance
Resilient to water logging
Plants that mitigate climate change
Carbon sequestration
Plants for fuels
Artificial photosynthesis (?)

17. Potential Plant-Climate Research Issues
Plants that deliver environmental services
Stimulate rainfall, enhance recycling ratio
Protect soil from erosion
Better use of early season PAR

18. Recycling ratio, R = PL/P
PL = precipitation from local sources
P = total precipitation
Amazon: R ~ ( )
Upper Mississippi River Basin: R~ ( )

19. May
June
Jul
Jul

20. ISU Climate Science and Impacts Initiative
Open invitation to faculty, staff, and graduate students to discuss opportunities for collaboration on basic science and applications of climate change and climate variability
Monday November 26
4:00-5:30 PM
3140 Agronomy Hall (?)
Overview of regional climate science at ISU (10 min)
Proposals submitted
Funding opportunities available