1. The effects of targeted reductions of patrol dosage on crime victimisation and costs in night time economy hotspots: A Phase 1 Trial – Operation Reddleman.
Identifying Hot Spots
15 minute intermittent police dosage v ‘normal’ policing
Live time monitoring of hot spots
GPS tracking of officers
‘Koper Curve’
Residual Deterrence
Reddleman – Thomas Hardy ‘The return of the native’ The Reddleman provided red ochre to farmers so that they could mark their rams in order to track ewes that they believed were pregnant. Separated and tracked!
Early realisation – this study was all about Tracking!
IOM2016
Chief Inspector Chris Gibson

2. Research questions
Can night time economy patrol dosage be reduced by switching from a ‘flooded’ random patrol strategy to a targeted hot spots patrol, without adverse impacts on crime?
Will the targeted patrol strategy reduce costs of policing night time economy hot spots?
Can this hot spots study be implemented with enough precision to deliver targeted dosage levels?
Current City Plan Operation
Tact Team deployments
New operating model
Context – challenge traditional hot spot experiments concept by testing whether deploying a reduced number of officers into a NTE area, focusing on targeted dosage and a power few number of high harm hotspots, would impact on crime volume and crime harm
And if crime volume and harm reduced or stayed the same then could some officers be redeployed away from the city centre NTE operation back into the wider communities to police high harm OCG firearm related disruption plans

3. Hotspot Research & Theory
Definition of a hot spot
Effective dosage for deterrence
Rational choice theory
Routine activities theory
Lots of Hot spot research and theory out there
Brief overview of the four areas that I researched

4. Definition of a hot spot
Sherman et al (1989, p31) -“a fixed physical environment that can be seen completely and simultaneously, at least on its surface, by ones naked eye”.
Weisburd & Braga (2006) – micro places
Sherman et al (2014) – line of sight
Hotspots have been described in various ways by a number of criminologists, but in short the theory looks at the criminal characteristics of a small geographical ‘place’ that exhibits much higher levels of crime in contrast to the surrounding area.
Sherman et al, (1989) defined a ‘micro-level’ place in terms of its size as a building of street address. Sherman et al, (2014) and Weisburd & Braga, (2006) defined such a place as both sides of a street from one junction to the next. This theory is reliant on the philosophy that it is “a fixed physical environment that can be seen completely and simultaneously, at least on its surface, by ones naked eye” (Sherman et al, 1989, p31).
In theory this means that a police officer deployed to a micro-location should be able to view every incident that may occur within their line of sight, and every potential offender should likewise be able to see them.
Current Merseyside analysis – Evidence based?

5. City Plan Hot Spots Historic City Plan Patrol tactics
Zonal Hot Spot policing
Mixture of random foot/ mobile patrol and static ‘Flooding’ – Concert Square/ temple Court

6. Hot Spot 2
Zone 2
87 Licensed premises
Targeted policing?

7. Effective dosage for deterrence
Sherman (1990) – Police crackdowns “intermittent, unpredictable crackdowns make risks of apprehension far more uncertain than could any system of fixed police priorities” (1990, p3).
Koper (1995) – the ‘Koper curve’ “patrols appear to be most effective when they are 13 to 15 minutes long. After 15 minutes, the benefits of increasing duration decline”.
Goddard (2013) – PSNI experiment
Sherman (1990) - there is a growing body of research that considers the amount of police presence at a hot spot, also referred to as ‘dosage’, and the impact it has on crime. The issue of police dosage was first raised by Sherman (1990) when assessing the deterrent effect following police crackdowns in 18 case studies. Through the research, he evidenced that in 15 of the case studies there were signs of initial deterrence and 2 examples of long term deterrence. He went on to discuss the concept of ‘slow decay’ in relation to the deterrent effect following the end of a police crackdown, calling this a ‘free bonus’ suggesting that “intermittent, unpredictable crackdowns make risks of apprehension far more uncertain than could any system of fixed police priorities” (1990, p3).
Koper (1995) - sought to explore the relationship between patrol dosage and the length of time the area was crime free thereafter. He conducted further analysis to ascertain how much time police should be spending at a hot spot and concluded “Stops appear to be most effective when they are 13 to 15 minutes long. After 15 minutes, the benefits of increasing duration decline. This concept is often referred to as the ‘Koper curve’, as plotted on a graph, the effectiveness of the dosage would show curvature correlating to the benefits of the police presence before plateauing at around minutes.
Goddard (2013) - implemented a randomised control trial in Northern Ireland across three weekends. The trial was based on the recommendations advocated by Koper (1995), comparing 15 minute patrol dosages against static patrol at 10 night time economy hot spots - expand

8. Rational Choice Theory
Cornish & Clarke (1986)
Increase the effort needed by the offender to commit the offence
Increase the risk of detection
Reduce the reward gained from the crime
Reduce the provocation that may surround the crime
Remove any excuse the offender may use to justify their actions
At the centre of the theory of deterrence is the assertion that offenders make rational choices when deciding to commit a crime, weighing up the pleasure: pain ratio. Cornish and Clarke (1986) built on this principle with the ‘Rational Choice Theory’, which they developed to provide a framework for policy makers to use when considering crime prevention strategies.
In the context of situational crime prevention, such as neighbourhood watch, CCTV installation and target-hardening, Cornish and Clarke (1986) sought to reduce the opportunity for the offender to commit crime, making the cost of crime outweigh the benefits to be gained, with the formulation of Rational Choice Theory. They highlight a number of operational approaches that should be considered when implementing new initiatives at a crime problem. These are as follows;
These operational approaches were built into operation Reddleman methodology

9. Routine Activities Theory
Cohen & Felson (1979)
“Criminal acts require convergence in space and time of likely offenders, suitable targets and the absence of capable guardians against crime”(Cohen & Felson, 1979, p588).
developed by Cohen and Felson for analysing crime rate trends and cycles, evidencing that “criminal acts require convergence in space and time of likely offenders, suitable targets and the absence of capable guardians against crime”(1979, p588).
It is evident from this explanation that the theory combines the notion of offenders making rational decisions from Rational Choice Theory and the fear of apprehension from Deterrence Theory. This concept of the confluence of motivated offenders, suitable targets and capable guardians in certain places and at particular times is key to hot spot policing
seeks to highlight the specific geographical areas that these elements pose the most risk and through manipulating the guardianship variable with increases in police presence, it is anticipated that would-be offenders will be deterred from committing crime.

10. Research design and methods
Control Hot Spots
Treatment Hot Spots
Liverpool City Centre -
Innovative hot spot approach to policing
6 week trial – Sat/ Sun hrs
5 paired groups (5 treatment/ 5 control)
12-15 min dosage vs. random patrolling
Approx. 450 officers briefed
Tactical Command
Live time tracking via Airwave radios
Implementation plan delivered
Explain the difference in id the hotspots. MG11’s/ Crime reports.
6 week phase 1 trial concluded at the end of May.
10 hotspots were identified and paired into similar groups based on volume crime
12-15 min patrol dosage provided in the 5 treatment hotspots by 1 sgt and 3 Constables. Control groups received random patrolling via wider City Plan operation officers- approx. 45 officers per night.
I ran the operation on each weekend via a Tactical Command centre and conducted two briefings per night to over 450 officers.
Officers were tracked via their Airwave GPS signal
Number of patrol breaches during sterile periods - None – me 14 times to CFS.
Backed up via live CCTV images in the control room and BWV
Implementation plan was strong and delivered the objective

11. NTE Crime types Violence against the person - Public Order -
ASSAULT ON PERSON PRESERVING WRECK
ASSAULT WITH INTENT TO RESIST APPREHENSION
ATTEMPTED MURDER
ATTEMPTING TO CHOKE ETC. IN ORDER TO COMMIT INDICTABLE OFFENCES
COMMON ASSAULT AND BATTERY
MURDER - PERSON AGED OVER 1 YEAR
RACIALLY OR RELIGIOUSLY AGGRAVATED ACTUAL BODILY HARM
RACIALLY OR RELIGIOUSLY AGGRAVATED COMMON ASSAULT OR BEATING
RACIALLY OR RELIGIOUSLY AGGRAVATED MALICIOUS WOUNDING
SEC 18. WOUNDING WITH INTENT TO DO GRIEVOUS BODILY HARM
SEC 20. INFLICTING GRIEVOUS BODILY HARM, WITHOUT INTENT WITH OR WITHOUT WEAPON
SEC 20. MALICIOUS WOUNDING
SEC 47. ASSAULT OCCASIONING ACTUAL BODILY HARM
Public Order -
Rape & Other Sexual Offences
Robbery Personal
Drugs Possession and Use
Possession of Weapons
Theft Person
Theft Other
A.S.B. 11

12. Live time tracking via Airwave GPS

13. Randomised Control Trial - Control and Treatment Areas
The hotspots were then paired based on crime volumes and the square metre area of the polygon.
They were then randomly separated into two groups treatment and control.
Treatment Hotspots received the manipulated patrol dosage of 15 minutes, rotating between the 5 hotspots
Control Hotspots received normal City Plan policing, these hotspots were not disclosed to the officers as this may have inadvertently cause them to change the way they police these areas.
All officers were made aware of the treatment areas in order to prevent breaches and keep the treatment areas as sterile as possible.

14. Low numbers but no difference!
Volumes of crime during the Op Reddleman experimental 6 week period 23/4/ /05/16 for treatment and control areas excluding officer generated crime
Hot Spot
T = Treatment
C = Control 
2015 officer generated crimes removed
2016 officer generated crimes removed
Difference
T - Concert Square 23 20 -5
C - Temple Court 14 11
T - Bold Street 1 -1
C - Hanover Street/ Duke Street 2
T - Seel Street 7
C - Victoria Street/ North John Street 3 -3
T - Slater Street
C - Back Berry Street
T - Wood Street 5
C - Fleet Street/ Slater Street 10
Treatment 38 32 -6
Control 30 21 -9
Low numbers but no difference!
The areas were grouped based on annual crime volume. This data compares the 6 week 2016 Reddleman period to the same 2015 period.
In total we have removed 11 crimes from 2015 (control 3/ treatment 8) and 9 crimes from 2016 (control 1/ treatment 8).

15. Concert Square and Temple Court – a study within a study!
Key:
Control Hotspot
Treatment Hotspot
The study focused on these two hot spots. Both locations have a high concentration of licensed premises, footfall and are consistently the two most violent NTE hot spots in Merseyside. Our response over the last number of years has been to increase the number of static patrolling officers during the hours of 2300 and 0500hrs. It is normal for both locations to be policed consistently by at least 12 officers together at any one time throughout the course of the City Plan operation.
Throughout the 6 week Reddleman period Temple court had officer presence for 92% of the 48 hour period (multiple officers)
As opposed to Concert Sq which had officer presence for 26% of the time (4 dosage officers)

16. Patrol Coverage via GPS Pings (1 or more officer)
Average patrol officer coverage for Treatment Areas (Reddleman officers)
Average patrol officer coverage for Control Areas
Treatment Area Average Officer coverage
Bold Street
24%
Concert Square
26%
Seel Street
27%
Slater Street
23%
Wood Street
25%
Control Area Average Officer coverage
Hanover St and Duke St Jct
15%
Temple Court
92%
Victoria St and North John St Jct
31%
Back Berry Street 2%
Fleet St and Slater St Jct
%40
This data evidences 1 or more officers within the hot spot areas at any time during the parameters of the experiment
This analysis related to the 6 week Reddleman period.
Treatment – approximately ¼ of patrol time in line with prescribed dosage
Control – random patrolling apart from Temple Court which evidenced 92% coverage throughout the 48 hours of the study

17. Cost benefit analysis – Treatment Vs. Control
Hourly Rate
Minute Rate
5 minute Rate
Average Constable
£         17.44
 £             0.29
 £                 1.45
Absolute value
£                          1.45
5 min reads
Cost based on Con
Temple Court
1854
£2,694.48
Jct Victoria St/North John Street
249
£361.88
Jct Hanover Street/Duke Street 72
£104.64
Jct Fleet Street/Slater Street
545
£792.07
Back Berry Street 17
£24.71
£3,977.77
Concert Square
449
£652.55
Seel Street
Bold Street
322
£467.97
Wood Street
250
£363.33
Slater Street
368
£534.83
£2,380.56
Concert Square Vs. Temple court 78% more cost effective
This data is based on the number of individual officer 5 minute GPS pings over the 6 week trial and provides a cost comparison between Treatment and control groups
Within the four hours of the operation, there are 48 five minute intervals.  From the GPS signal reads from the radios, I have counted the number of unique radios within each 5 minute interval.  I have added these up for the 12 nights and then multiplied the volumes by the 5 minute rate then

18. Crime Harm Index (CHI) Sherman et al (2014)
Rather than focusing on unit volume it reflects a measurement of the potential harm caused to victims by “multiplying the crime by the number of days in prison that crime would attract”, (Sherman, Neyroud & Neyroud, 2014, p2).
Crime and CFS remained the same – Both policing tactics resulted in very little difference in volume of calls and crime reports
Having analysed volume it was important to analyse whether the dosage tactic had an impact on the seriousness of crime

21. Summary of Treatment and Control Area CHI scores
This shows that both the Treatment and Control Areas showed decreases in crime in comparison to last year. They also both show a decrease in the CHI score, both all crime and excluding self-generated crimes. This continues to be more evident in the Control areas

22. CHI score (Operation Reddleman period vs. 2015 comparative period)
This focuses on Concert Square (treatment) vs Temple Court (control) during the Operation Reddleman 6 week period vs the comparative 2015 period.
CS – 2015 (113.5)
2016 (27.5)
TC – 2015 (147)
(67)

23. Next steps…….
Review current force Hot Spot analysis - develop an evidenced based targeting, testing and tracking policy
Review current City plan – redeploy scarce resource to community
T.H &R
Develop ‘tracking capability’
Share Reddleman research results/ findings
As far as we know this hot spot experiment has delivered one of the strongest implementation models to date
In conclusion, the findings of this Phase 1 test present a number of future challenges for Merseyside police leaders to consider in order to develop further research into hot spot policing –
To review how current force hot spot analysis identifies high crime/ harm areas and develop an evidenced based targeting, testing and tracking policy that promotes the identification of smaller geo-fenced ‘places’ that in turn promote an enhanced targeted policing tactic
To develop a strategy to deliver the essential elements of Operation Reddleman within the operation City Plan in a more cost effective manner, in order to gather further evidence relating to the effectiveness or otherwise of shorter, targeted hot spot patrolling with reduced numbers of resource versus a random, flooded patrol tactic
To share the findings of this experiment with Merseyside police Corporate Services Department (CSD) to ensure that future procurement of hand-held personal issue officer radio systems have an enhanced GPS tracking system to improve officer location (Tracking) capability.
To share the findings of this experiment and associated research with the wider Merseyside police work force, particularly those officers who took part in the Phase 1 Reddleman test, in order to engage staff and promote an innovative, problem solving approach towards future hot spots policing tactics with a focus on generating further evidenced based practice.

24. Thank you
Chief Inspector Chris Gibson Twitter: MerpolEBP