1. Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
2015 Crop Market Outlook
June 2, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.6
89.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
147.2
123.1
158.1
171.0
166.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,360
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,630
Beg. Stocks
1,128
989
821
1,232
1,851
Imports 29
160 36 25
Total Supply
13,517
11,904
14,686
15,472
15,506
Feed & Residual
4,557
4,315
5,036
5,250
5,300
Ethanol
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,200
Food, Seed, & Other
1,428
1,397
1,367
1,347
1,360
Exports
1,543
730
1,917
1,825
1,900
Total Use
12,528
11,083
13,454
13,622
13,760
Ending Stocks
1,746
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.65
3.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.0
77.2
76.8
83.7
84.6
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.9
40.0
44.0
47.8
46.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,094
3,042
3,358
3,969
3,850
Beg. Stocks
215
169
141 92
350
Imports 16 41 72 30
Total Supply
3,325
3,252
3,570
4,091
4,230
Crush
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,805
1,825
Seed & Residual 88
105 97
136
129
Exports
1,365
1,317
1,647
1,800
1,775
Total Use
3,155
3,111
3,478
3,741
3,729
Ending Stocks
500
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.05
9.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Planting Progress
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Corn Emergence
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Soybean Planting Progress
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Soybean Emergence
Source: USDA-NASS

8. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

11. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

18. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

19. Corn Grind for Ethanol

20. Current Corn Futures
3.64
3.52
Source: CME Group, 6/1/2015

21. Current Soybean Futures
9.96
8.69
Source: CME Group, 6/1/2015

22. 2014/15 Crop Margins

23. 2015/16 Crop Margins

24. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Demand has been weakening
Outside markets have not helped
Watching South American crop and U.S. planting progress
Projected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops
2014/15
USDA
2015/16
Futures
(6/1/15)
Corn
$3.65
$3.50
$3.64
$3.52
Soybeans
$10.05
$9.00
$9.96
$8.69

25. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: