1. Used motor vehicle imports and the impact on road transportation in Zambia
Based on the Review Report of 2017
Presented by Zali Chikuba
at the
Stakeholder Engagement Workshop Held at Intercontinental Hotel, Lusaka
26th April 2017
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

2. “Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”
Outline
Introduction
Objectives of the Study
Methodology
Key Findings
Policy Implications
Policy Recommendations
Conclusion
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

3. Introduction
2014 publication, “used motor vehicle imports and the impact on Zambian economy” working paper
Highlights
Factors influencing demand for motor vehicles
Aging Zambia’s motor vehicle fleet
Deteriorating fitness of status of the fleet

4. “Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”
Introduction
Economic growth over the 2000 – 2010 decade strong & fair since then
Growing middle class with increased consumption of both durable and non-durable goods
This has resulted in a growing consumption of motor vehicles, particularly, used ones
Economic Growth
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

5. “Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”
Introduction
Presently, no local motor vehicle manufacture or reconditioning
Most vehicles are imported from second hand market outside Zambia with quality uncertainties
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

6. “Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

7. “Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”
Potential Problems with the Second-hand Car Market
Low quality motor vehicles imports “lemons”
Increased maintenance burden
Environmental and health costs
Road safety concerns
Lost opportunity for own auto industry and associated upstream activities
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

8. Objectives of the review study
To review the aging status of Zambia’s motor vehicle fleet between and 2017,
To review the fitness status of Zambia’s motor vehicle fleet between and 2017,
To review the relationship between the source market of motor vehicles – new or second-hand – and the fitness status, and
To review the relationship between motor vehicle ages and fitness statuses.
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

9. “Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”
Methodology
Desk Review
Reviewed national motor vehicle registration and fitness data from RTSA.
The study is mainly descriptive in nature
Mean, median, mode, skewness …
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

10. Definition of Key Concepts
Motor Vehicle Fleet
Includes heavy and light passenger and freight vehicles – but excludes all sorts of motorcycles, tractors and trailers.
Motor Vehicle Fitness
A registered motor vehicle that has a certificate of fitness issued by RTSA.
Fit lifespan of Motor Vehicle
Time period in years between the initial registration of a motor vehicle in Zambia and the time the motor vehicles fails to obtain a certificate of fitness for a period exceeding 3 months.
Motor Vehicle Age
Time period in years from the year of manufacture to 1st August, 2014.
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

11. “Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”
Key Findings
The average age of Zambia’s motor vehicle fleet still increasing
As at 25 March 2017, Zambia’s vehicle fleet approximated 580,990.
87.4% were acquired from the second-hand market and 12.6% were acquired as new vehicles.
By 2017, the most common age for motor vehicles was 18 years, up from;
17 years in 2014, and
13 years in 2006
Forecast, 20 years in 2019.
2014 & 2017, vehicles less than 10 years had reduced significantly.
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

12. “Working Towards the Formulation of Sound Economic Policies”
Age Profile of Zambia's Motor Vehicle Fleet
“Working Towards the Formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

13. “Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”
The increase in the age of the fleet matters for three major reasons:
The risk of breakdowns increases
It has a negative impact on the environment
There is a risk of worsening road safety
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

14. Imported vehicles still older
Average Age of Vehicles at Importation Falls Slightly for 2016 & 2017
Average age at which vehicles are imported had risen from 10.5 years in to slightly less than 13 years in
But in 2016, that age reduced to slightly less than 12 years
Note: Data for 2017 is for 3 months from January to March
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

15. “Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”
The proportion of motor vehicles without roadworthiness certificates continued to rise
THE NUMBER OF VEHICLES WHICH ARE DEEMED UNFIT HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
Average fit-lifespan of second-hand vehicle imports rises from 4 years in to 5 years in 2017
while that of new motor vehicles is slightly greater than 12 years, (global expected lifespan of a standard motor vehicle; 13 years).
FIT LIFESPAN OF SECOND-HAND MOTOR VEHICLES IN ZAMBIA INCREASES
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

16. “Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”
In 2007, ~3.3% of all vehicles which had been roadworthy the previous year were deemed unfit and not legally allowed to continue to be driven.
The proportion continued to rise
4.5% for 2010,
7.2% for 2014 ,
10.2% for 2016, &
24.1 for 2017**
This is of concern because there are several leakages of non-roadworthy vehicles on the public roads in Zambia.
Zambia has some of the highest road traffic death rates in the world & in Africa estimated at 23.7 road traffic death rates per 100,000 pop. (WHO, 2013).
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

17. Policy Recommendations
Short term policy options
A strengthening of the pre- shipment road worthiness assessments
Changes to the current import duty and excise tax treatment for imported motor vehicles.
Placing a cap on the age of vehicles imported into Zambia 
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

18. Medium to Long Term Policy Options
Strengthening of the public transport system
Introduce motor vehicle scrappage policy (cash for clunkers)
Commence local car assembly of popular models
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”

19. “Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”
Thank you
“Working Towards the formulation of Sound Economic Policies”