1. Farm Economics 101 Leadership for Midwestern Watersheds Dubuque, Iowa
Nov. 1, 2016
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. Iowa’s Economy

3. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

4. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.4
173.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,601
15,057
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
1,738
Imports
160 36 32 67 50
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,400
16,845
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,324
5,192
5,650
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,200
5,206
5,275
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,360
1,367
1,375
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,898
2,225
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,662
14,525
Ending Stocks
2,320
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.25
Source: USDA-WAOB, modified 4 4

5. Corn Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. Value of Crop Production
Source: USDA-ERS

8. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

10. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

11. Value of Livestock Production
Source: USDA-ERS

12. Farm Production Expenses
Source: USDA-ERS

13. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Trend Yields

14. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

15. Net Farm Income
Source: USDA-ERS

16. Iowa Farm Financial Stats
Sources: ISU Extension and Iowa Farm Bus. Assoc.

17. Tracking Specific Farms
Using data from the Iowa Farm Business Association, we have been able to track 316 farms over the course of 2015.
The average amount of working capital on the farm dropped by $90,000 during the year.
Current Ratio
Jan. 2015
Jan. 2016
Vulnerable (CR < 1.3)
29%
36%
Cautionary (1.3 < CR < 2.0)
20%
21%
Strong (CR > 2.0)
51%
43%
Debt to Asset Ratio
Jan. 2015
Jan. 2016
Vulnerable (DA > 0.6)
19%
22%
Cautionary (0.3 < DA < 0.6)
37%
Strong (DA < 0.3)
44%
41%
Sources: ISU Extension and Iowa Farm Bus. Assoc.

18. Iowa Land Values

19. 2015 Iowa Land Values - % Change

20. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: