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42h forecast HIRLAM 50km 24h accumulated precipitation
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42h forecast ECMWF ~ 60km 24h accumulated precipitation
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42h forecast EPS 24h accumulated precipitation
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42h forecast TEPS 24h accumulated precipitation
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42h forecast LAMEPS 24h accumulated precipitation
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42h forecast LAMTEPS 24h accumulated precipitation
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(*) LAMTEPS Member 14
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Case 2 Observed 24h accumulated precipitation
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42h forecast HIRLAM 50km 24h accumulated precipitation
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42h forecast ECMWF ~ 60km 24h accumulated precipitation
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42h forecast EPS 24h accumulated precipitation
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42h forecast TEPS 24h accumulated precipitation
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42h forecast LAMEPS 24h accumulated precipitation
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42h forecast LAMTEPS 24h accumulated precipitation
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HIRLAM 50km analysis 27 Sept. 1999 06 UTC (MSLP) L
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EPS member 18 42 hours forecast valid at 27 Sept. 1999 06 UTC L
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LAMEPS member 18 42 hours forecast valid at 27 Sept. 1999 06 UTC L
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Summary Ensembles with HIRLAM are promising, especially for heavy precipitation events Perturbing lateral boundary conditions important For forecast range 0-3 days perturbing with TEPS better than EPS HIRLAM is able to add features, not only downscaling EPS
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Plans Norwegian met. Inst. wants to continue the work with limited area ensembles Look at different ways of perturbing the initial conditions Perturbing the physics: using different physical packages? Multi model approach?
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