1. 2013/14 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation
Sept. 4, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
97.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
154.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,763
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
719
Imports 8 28 29
165 30
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,517
11,934
14,512
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,546
4,450
5,100
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,650
4,900
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,400
1,450
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
715
1,225
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,528
11,215
12,675
Ending Stocks
1,837
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.95
4.90
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.6
42.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,015
3,255
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
125
Imports 15 14 16 35
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,219
3,396
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,685
1,675
Seed & Residual
110
130 88 95
116
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,365
1,315
1,385
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,176
Ending Stocks
220
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.40
11.35
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
59.2
53.6
54.4
55.7
56.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.5
46.3
43.7
46.2
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,218
2,207
1,999
2,269
2,114
Beg. Stocks
657
976
862
743
718
Imports
119 97
112
123
130
Total Supply
2,993
3,279
2,974
3,134
2,962
Food
919
926
941
945
958
Seed 69 71 76 73
Feed & Residual
150
132
162
390
280
Exports
879
1,289
1,051
1,007
1,100
Total Use
2,018
2,417
2,231
2,416
2,411
Ending Stocks
551
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.87
5.70
7.24
7.77
7.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. Corn Crop Rating

6. Objective Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Soybean Crop Rating

9. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

10. Projected Winter Wheat Yields
Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

11. Projected Spring Wheat Yields
Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

12. National Wheat Projections

13. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14

15. World Wheat Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 15 15

16. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

17. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

18. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 18 18

19. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Soybean Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

22. Soybean Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

23. Wheat Export Pace
Source: USDA-FAS

24. Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

25. Corn Grind for Ethanol

26. Current Corn Futures
4.73
4.67
4.47
Source: CME Group, 9/3/2013

27. Current Soybean Futures
12.96
11.43
10.83
Source: CME Group, 9/3/2013

28. Current Wheat Futures
6.74
6.58
6.59
Source: CME Group, 9/3/2013

29. 3 Month Outlook - Temps

30. 3 Month Outlook - Precip

31. Crop Acreage
Source: USDA-NASS

32. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

33. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Lack of moisture before harvest, possibility of too much during harvest
Export strength/weakness, China’s moves in the corn & wheat markets
2012/13
USDA
2013/14
Futures
(9/3/13)
Corn
$6.95
$4.90
$4.47
Soybeans
$14.40
$11.35
$12.96
Wheat
$7.77
$7.00
$6.74

34. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: