1. urban development paths
Current urban research results in NSP:
Climate proof
urban development paths
next steps:
quantifying all important socially specific vulnerabilities, impacts + adaptation options
extent conceptual generic model to urban form
relate structural parameters of urban change with heat wave and sea level rise vulnerability
flooding after local
heavy rain events
orography and drainage
localization/growth
patterns of urban
areas/ slum location
density and land use structure
resilience under
local inundation
exergy maps
anthrop. pressure cities->earth system
sea level rise
low lying & coastal location
dense and
redundant
transport net
socially specific
CC impact nets
strong social differentiation
rapid and global
urbanization
urban CC
vulnerabilities
Synergies
conceptual generic model for
urban regions

2. Endangered urban areas under extreme precipitation: flow accumulation
Research results:
Estimation of frequency increase
of climate-change induced extreme
precipitation events
Orography-derived, remote
Sensing based flow accumulation
model
Kit et al., 2010
Climate-proofing measures:
Restriction of development
in identified areas of high
flow accumulation
Preventive extension of drainage
system
Hyderabad, from 17 AOGCMs (Lüdeke et al., 2010)

3. City Clustering Algorithm Greater London administrative Results:
based on population density
administrative
city cluster
(Rozenfeld HD, Rybski D, PNAS 2008)
Results:
different definitions of cities affect statistical properties of urban activity
Zipf's law holds over many decades
scale-invariant growth features
long-range spatial correlations in growth
Climate-proofing:
application of these structural properties to predict the cities vulnerability, e.g. towards heat waves or coastal floods
targeted preventive action

4. Regional Urban Growth Patterns
Annual growth:
fastest in China (1.5-2%) and Latin America- 1%- both independent from density
Europe: cities < 2 mln will grow: Less density - more growth potential
China and Europe - same number of mega-cities
Expect the number in China to increase 2-3-times
Cities larger then 5 mln:
each region different => global economy, not demography laws
Disperse city-> lower emissions per area
Compact city-> lower emissions per person.
Svirejeva-Hopkins, “ City Size, Density and Sectoral Structure: exploring Urban Sustainability in the Regions. EGU

5. Slum areas endangered by flooding
Research results:
automatic slum area identification (lacunarity) from remote sensing (Bird Eye)
for different time slices
vulnerability of urban slum areas in Hyderabad towards heavy rain fall events
Climate-proofing measures:
Integration of slum identification procedures into urban planning process
Inclusion of secure low cost housing in urban development plans
Light to dark blue: water flows under heavy rain (flow accumulation). Green to red: vulnerability of urban slum areas in Hyderabad (Kit et al. 2010)

6. how far is the system from thermodynamic equilibrium with environment
Anthropogenic Pressure of Cities on Earth System: Thermodynamic approach*
Exergy:
how far is the system from thermodynamic equilibrium with environment
Index of anthropogenic
disturbance:
Anthropogenic heat flux / Exergy
New York: 0.1
Moscow: 0.5
Seoul: 0.6
Index per individual- density/level of infrastructure.
Exergy
0.57
W/m2
174.24
Svirejeva-Hopkins, et al “Mapping the state of city systems based on remote sensing. Exergy and sustainability of urban form”. UGEC, Arizona.

7. Rapidly urbanizing coastal areas in developing countries
Research Result:
Climate Proofing:
Entry points for supporting
climate proof development,
depending on vulnerability
profile:
infrastructure sectors to
concentrate on
emphasis on deprived
areas
restoration of natural
protection
Kok/Lüdeke/Sterzel et al., in press
6 clearly separable clusters in 17-dim indicator space => different vulnerability profiles

8. Weather related impacts on different socio-economic groups and socially sensitive adaptation options
Climate proofing (heat and rain events):
Increasing the easiness of mobility better the living situation for both groups
Wallahs: investment in health infrastructure better than in energy infrastructure
City managers: the opposite
Improvement of water supply and drainage infrastructure reduces ALL associated problems in traffic, water, economic and health situation for City managers and Wallahs
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (survey based) of
weather impacts for different social groups
Here: rain for Wallahs in Delhi (Reckien et al, in prep.)
Rain events:
Improvement
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Wallahs
2.8
2.2
5.5
1.5
2.1
1.1
City
managers
1.6
2.7
0.9
1.0
Six improvement scenarios evaluated using the social group specific FCMs for heat and rain events:
(1) Improvement of water and sewage infrastructure (2) Selfhelp solutions by working in the dark, repairing houses, private power generation (3) Increase the easiness of mobility (4) Investment in energy infrastructure and provision without and (5) with “private access” (6) Extension of health infrastructure

9. Urban Region Generic Model
City
Population: P
Urban assets: U
Urban area: Lu
Immigration
Emigration
Imports
Exports
Non/Renewable
Ecosystem
Agriculture
Services
Energy
Energy
Ecosys. Assets E
Natural area: LE
Agri. Assets: A
Agri. area: LA
Etc.
Etc.
Approach
Identification of general bio-physical key processes.
Defining generic functionals and coarse variables.
Dynamical systems representation ; Land use changes, resource exploitation,
demographic growth and assets production.
Objectives
Developing insights into:
Critical transitions along different climate scenario and socio-economic development
paths.
Shifts towards sustainable steady regimes.
Resilience of desirable regimes.
A. Garcia Cantu et al. (In preparation)