1. HVAC Research Roadmap
Summary

2. Presentation Outline
Purpose: Provide an overview of the HVAC Research Roadmap
Roadmap Overview
Brief description of the study areas
High Priority Activities within study areas
Approach to Roadmap Summary
Overview of approaches for each study area
Upstream HVAC
Quality Installation (and “to code”)
Quality Maintenance
Deemed HVAC
Laboratory Testing
Market Assessment: Code Compliance

3. Overview of HVAC Research Roadmap
Roadmap has an estimated budget of $6.5 million for ED Studies and $825k for IOU Studies
No change expected to this budget
6 studies managed by the CPUC ED
Updated in the Roadmap Summary
3 studies managed by the IOUs
No Changes in Roadmap Summary, Not Covered in this Presentation
EM&V Plan shows that the roadmap includes PCG Coordination and 9 distinct studies
Continuing regular PCG meetings
First meeting occurred March 2011, the first PCG
Regular meetings are the 1st Friday of the month; 9-10:30AM Pacific
High Priority ESPI Measures – Mini Splits, Quality Maintenance
These efforts fit into the study areas in the Roadmap, which are…

4. ED-Led Studies and Budgets
Study Area/Title
Short Name
Type
Budget
Impact Evaluation of Commercial and proposed Residential Upstream HVAC Programs
Upstream HVAC
Impact
$1,950,000
Impact Evaluation of Residential Quality Installation Programs and proposed incentives for “to code” installations in the Residential sector
Quality Installation
$500,000
Impact Evaluation of Residential and Commercial Quality Maintenance Programs
Quality Maintenance
$1,500,000
Impact Evaluation of Deemed HVAC Measures
Deemed HVAC
$300,000
HVAC Laboratory Testing
Lab Testing
$1,000,000
Market Assessment: Identifying Baselines and Barriers for Existing HVAC Conditions, Building Permit and Title 24 Compliance
Market Assessment: Code Compliance
Market
$1,250,000
ED-led TOTAL
$6,500,000

5. High Level Overview of Measures and Programs Evaluated
Upstream HVAC – Incentives to Participating Distributors to Stock High Efficiency
Savings –DEER values with assumptions on building type and vintage
Commercial – Long standing program, Majority of market participating
Residential – Pilot program for 13-14
Quality Installation (QI) – Incentives to exceed Title 24 change out requirements
Savings – Workpapers
“To code” – Pilot program for 13-14
Quality Maintenance (QM) – Incentives for maintenance to improve existing system efficiency
Savings – Workpapers, some DEER measures for local/3rd party
Deemed HVAC– Multiple HVAC measures in commercial, residential, and other programs, Prescriptive rebates for HVAC equipment, primarily DEER savings
Lab testing and Market Assessment support evaluations of all measures; They also can inform ex ante assumptions in workpapers and DEER

6. High Priority Activities Based on ESPI Measures
Evaluability Assessment for Mini-splits
Part of Upstream HVAC Evaluation
Field Assessments for Quality Maintenance
Part of QM Evaluation, Multiple Methods under Consideration
Continue Laboratory Testing from
Informs QM, Key to linking field measurements to savings estimates in workpapers and DEER for multiple HVAC measures

7. Original Roadmap Approach
Roadmap Summary
Approached Updating the Roadmap by
Updating assumptions on studies
Reviewed planned activities and listed potential challenges or issues
Developed a Proposed Approach to specifically overcome the challenges or issues identified that may complicate a given study
Example:
The solution proposed for this example from Upstream HVAC Evaluation follows
Original Roadmap Approach
Challenges and Issues
Field monitoring will be done for both participant and non-participant units in the residential and commercial sectors across a variety of climate zones and building types
Consider participant non-participant, 3 HVAC types, 6 key climate zones and at least 5 building types means 180 strata for sampling. Therefore even minimal samples will create costs far exceeding the budget for even simple metering of unit power. Sampling detailed performance would further limit the sample by increasing cost per point.

8. Upstream HVAC Evaluation
A phone survey and followup onsite effort to verify installations and characterize installed application may be able to achieve large samples
Mini-split Evaluability assessment: Include data collection to first determine baseline and applications through surveys. Several metering challenges can be outlined through literature review, with metering protocols established through a pilot/case study.
Conduct a metering pilot to determine whether AMI data (SmartMeters) can be leveraged to fill all the strata needed based on comparison to direct end use meters with remote communications.
Year 1: Phone and onsite surveys to determine install rate and applications of installed units;
Year 1: Separate project: Pilot remote metering and correlation to AMI Coordinate with WB interval data study conducted by IOUs, compare AMI-based HVAC estimates to meters installed on individual HVAC units
Year 2: Either more verifications or begin monitoring starting with highest savings climate zone (1) and building type (1) combination per IOU

9. Quality Installation Evaluation
Challenge of metering and measuring a sufficient number of non-participants to compare both QI and “To Code” participants against
Focus on participants in the two programs (QI and To Code) since the budget is $500k. The larger market assessment should conduct the non- participant assessments since the budget is $1.25M.
Non-participants under 2008 Title 24 would include installs from 2009 to June
Year 1: Participant and Non participant sample design with project review followed by monitoring and testing,
Year 2: Small WO or add-on for direct observations if needed

10. Quality Maintenance Evaluation
Ex-post observations followed by debrief to program and technician. Sub-sample may include case study to estimate achieved and remaining energy savings potential.
Without pre-measurement, installation rate is primary parameter measured, some UES assumptions in workpapers can be modified with measurements after measures are installed, but does not inform measure baseline without pre- measurement.
Work on pre-post coordination, but not on the annual reporting timeline. This means “Pre” in 2014 and “Post” in Otherwise the program measures may need to be all installed at the same time which is not part of program design, but is needed to streamline ex post M&V.
High Priority: Continue Lab work and site visits with interim reports on findings
Year 1: Reporting on ex-post sample followed by case studies of achieved and remaining energy savings potential.
Year 2: Reporting for pre-post monitoring with direct observation… results delayed to overcome coordination challenges

11. Deemed HVAC Evaluation
A gap exists for measures that are not addressed in QI, QM, and upstream programs. Examples include HVAC controls, VFDs for HVAC, and boilers and furnaces.
Scope will depend on the magnitude of the savings as well as the uncertainty in the DEER or workpaper estimates.
Field data collection should focus on obtaining parameter level data to reduce savings uncertainty.
Perhaps focus on gas measures not studied in and not mentioned in (e.g. residential furnaces) given all other efforts focusing on cooling.
Deemed study can identify data that needs to be collected in other efforts especially if deemed measures exist at Upstream, QI, QM, and “non-participant” sites
Year 1: Uncertainty analysis and focused study. Perhaps on gas measures not studied in and not mentioned in (e.g. residential furnaces)
Year 2: Data collection to be defined by year 1 uncertainty/gap analysis

12. HVAC Laboratory Testing
Lab testing is an ongoing activity spanning multiple program cycles. Lab testing is an integral part of the overall HVAC Program impact evaluation as it provides insights into the impact of installation techniques and service actions that are not possible in a field only study.
Any testing identified in the plans or during the cycle that was not completed will be addressed during the cycle.
Additional tests will be identified based on the needs of the DEER updates, non- DEER workpaper reviews and ex-post impact evaluation.
Tests will be conducted in qualified laboratories using AHRI, ASHRAE and/or ANSI standards.
Two Phases: Conduct lab work not completed in and reserve funds to test based on new field findings
Year 1: WO to test 2 large and 2 small units already at Intertek
Year 2: Set aside contingency to plan and conduct additional lab tests based on new field findings

13. HVAC Market Assessment: Code Compliance
Multiple research questions, such as
Develop a baseline for permitting and compliance for HVAC changeouts
Characterize conditions of “existing” systems and awareness of market actors
Determine barriers to permitting and compliance
Site surveys for non-participants as they will serve as a baseline for both QI and To Code. QM participants should be excluded.
Market Actor interviews should include: HERS Raters, Code Officials (part of permit data collection), CSLB, Contractors, Distributors, CEC Code setting staff.
The IOU Market Assessment may be a good gateway survey of customers to identify non-participants and then offer a follow-up onsite
Year 1: Permit rate study, market actor interviews; Await IOU customer surveys before fielding non-participants site visits
Year 2: Compliance study, same onsite procedure as QI and To Code

14. Visit http://www. energydataweb. com/cpuc/search
Visit select “ ” program cycle and search “HVAC”.  Public comment may be posted to the Public Document Area through February 20, Questions?
Jarred Metoyer