1. 2013 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation
May 23, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
97.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
158.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
14,140
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
759
Imports 8 28 29
125 25
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,516
11,894
14,924
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,545
4,400
5,325
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,600
4,850
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,385
1,445
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
750
1,300
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,135
12,920
Ending Stocks
2,004
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.90
4.70
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
77.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.6
44.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,015
3,390
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
125
Imports 15 14 16 20
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,204
3,530
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,635
1,695
Seed & Residual
110
130 90 95
120
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,362
1,350
1,450
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,080
3,264
Ending Stocks
265
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.30
10.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
59.2
53.6
54.4
55.7
56.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.5
46.3
43.7
44.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,218
2,207
1,999
2,269
2,057
Beg. Stocks
657
976
862
743
731
Imports
119 97
112
125
130
Total Supply
2,993
3,279
2,974
3,137
2,917
Food
919
926
941
945
958
Seed 69 71 76 74
Feed & Residual
150
132
164
360
290
Exports
879
1,289
1,050
1,025
925
Total Use
2,018
2,417
2,231
2,406
2,247
Ending Stocks
670
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.87
5.70
7.24
7.80
6.80
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. Corn Planting Stats
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Corn Yields
Year with slow planting progress, like this year

7. Soybean Planting Stats
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Soybean Yields
Year with slow planting progress, like this year

11. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. World Wheat Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

15. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

16. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 16 16

17. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Corn Grind for Ethanol

21. Ethanol Stocks

22. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

23. Current Corn Futures
5.00
5.06
Source: CME Group, 5/22/2013

24. Current Soybean Futures
11.79
11.69
Source: CME Group, 5/22/2013

25. Current Wheat Futures
6.93
Source: KCBOT, 5/22/2013

27. 3 Month Outlook - Temps

28. 3 Month Outlook - Precip

29. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Soil moisture issues, key for all 3 crops
Export strength/weakness, competition among feed grains
Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing
2012/13
USDA
2013/14
Futures
(5/22/13)
Corn
$6.90
$4.70
$5.00
Soybeans
$14.30
$10.50
$11.79
Wheat
$7.80
$6.80
$6.93

30. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: