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2006 Water Resources Outlook for the Columbia River Basin

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Presentation on theme: "2006 Water Resources Outlook for the Columbia River Basin"— Presentation transcript:

1 2006 Water Resources Outlook for the Columbia River Basin
JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington October, 2006 Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier

2 Recap of Water Year 2005

3 Observed Nino3.4 anomally

4 Historic Water Years vs January Nino 3.4 Anomalies

5 Natural Streamflow (cfs)
Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles January Nino3.4 index between 0.2 and 1.2 Red = Unconditional mean Blue = Ensemble mean Black = 2005 Observed Natural Streamflow (cfs)

6 Natural Streamflow (cfs)
Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles January Nino3.4 index between 0.2 and 1.2 and warm PDO (epochs) Red = Unconditional mean Blue = Ensemble mean Black = 2005 Observed Natural Streamflow (cfs)

7 Natural Streamflow (cfs)
Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles Nino3.4 index between 0.2 and 1.2 and warm PDO (interannual) Red = Unconditional mean Blue = Ensemble mean Black = 2005 Observed Natural Streamflow (cfs)

8 ColSim Reservoir Model Climate Forecast VIC Hydrology Model

9 Linkage to Reservoir Models
Streamflow Forecast Bias Correction Storage Ensemble Reservoir Model Observed Reservoir Contents Demand Scenarios

10 All Years from 1950-2003 for which J. Nino3. 4 Anom. >= 0
All Years from for which J. Nino3.4 Anom. >= 0.2 AND <=1.2 Obs. System Storage Oct 1, 2005

11 System Storage Forecast from SnakeSim:
Jackson Lake Palisades Island Park Ririe American Falls Lake Walcott Nino3.4 anomaly between 0.2 and 1.2 C Demand aligned with water cond. October 1 Spin Up Active Reservoir Storage (kaf) Obs. System Storage Oct 1, 2005

12 Outlook for Water Year 2006

13 Winter Climate Forecasts Dominate Hydrologic State Variables Dominate
April 1 SWE (mm) Winter Climate Forecasts Dominate Hydrologic State Variables Dominate June December March Range =16.7% of ensemble summer mean

14 Used range: Jan3.4 >= -0.4 Jan3.4 <= 0.6

15 Historic Water Years vs January Nino 3.4 Anomalies
Red lines show approximate range for 2006 forecast

16 Natural Streamflow (cfs)
Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles January Nino3.4 index between -0.4 and 0.6 Red = Unconditional mean Blue = Ensemble mean Natural Streamflow (cfs)

17 Natural Streamflow (cfs)
Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles January Nino3.4 index between -0.4 and 0.6 AND PDO neutral Red = Unconditional mean Blue = Ensemble mean Natural Streamflow (cfs)

18 Used range: Jan3.4 >= 0.0 Jan3.4 <= 0.6

19 Natural Streamflow (cfs)
Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles January Nino3.4 index between 0.0 and 0.6 Red = Unconditional mean Blue = Ensemble mean Natural Streamflow (cfs)

20 ColSim Reservoir System Storage Forecast
All Years from for which J. Nino3.4 Anom. >= AND <= 0.6

21 Overview of Experimental Energy-Related Forecasting Products

22 Covariation of Normalized PNW and CA Hydropower Production
California and PNW hydropower resources show a strong covariance in the second half of the 20th century.

23 Probability of Exceedance for Spring Surplus Energy Resources in the PNW
Voisin, N., A. F. Hamlet, L. P. Graham, D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005: The role of climate forecasts in western U.S. power planning, Journal of Applied Meteorology (in press).

24 Forecast of System-Wide Energy Production from the Colsim Reservoir Model
All Years from for which J. Nino3.4 Anom. >= AND <= 0.6 Energy targets in each year of the simulation are for WY 2000 System-Wide Energy Production (MMW-hr/month)

25 Selected References on Compositing Techniques:
Hamlet, A.F., Lettenmaier, D.P., 1999: Columbia River Streamflow Forecasting Based on ENSO and PDO Climate Signals, ASCE J. of Water Res. Planning and Mgmt., 125 (6) : Werner K, Brandon D, Clark M, et al., 2004: Climate index weighting schemes for NWS ESP-based seasonal volume forecasts, J. of Hydrometeorology, 5 (6):

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