1. Verifying Ensemble Forecasts

2. Ensemble Forecasts Types of ensembles
Multiple initial conditions (anonymous members)
Multi-model (tractable members)

3. Verifying a distribution forecast

4. Outcomes of probabilistic forecasts

5. Troubled Rank Histograms

6. For a Poorman’s ensemble
Common practice is to use the separate forecasts as inputs to a statistical model to forecast the observed value.
Bayesian Model Averaging – historical performance is used to weight model importance on future predictions.

7. Open Ex4 Daily rainfall forecast for a basin in Bangladesh.
Downscaled from ECWMF 51 member ensemble.
mm/day