1. CUBAN MITIGATION EXPERIENCES
DR. JUAN LLANES-REGUEIRO, HAVANA UNIVERSITY, COORDINATOR CUBAN COUNTRY MITIGATION TEAM

2. THE TEAM:
DR. JUAN LLANES-REGUEIRO Economist, LA 4AR WG III, RA 4AR, WGII, IPCC
DR. ADRIANO GRACIA, Economist, National Institute for Economic Research (NIER), Macro Scenarios
DR. JOSE SOMOZA, Nuclear Engineer, Specialist on Statistics, Economist, (NIER), Macro models
DR. JUAN F. ZUÑIGA Electric Engineer, Specialist for System Analysis and Modelling.
Lic. JULIO TORRES, Energy Analist, Researcher at the National Observatory for Science and Technology

3. MAIN TASK:
EXPLORE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION ISSUES
EXPLORE POSSIBLE FUTURE CONSTRAINTS FOR SOCIOECOMOMIC DEVELOPMENT
TURN CONSTRAINTS INTO OPPORTTUNITIES
DEVELOP ACCURATE TOOLS FOR MITIGATION ASSESSMENT

4. SOCIOECONOMIC NATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
GHG
INVENTORY
MACRO SCENARIOS
SECTORAL SCENARIOS
BOTTOM-UP ANALYSIS

5. LINKS MACRO SCENARIOS- INVENTORY
Emissions inventory Medium term sce. Long term sce.
Source categories
Emission indicators
Why?
Integration of results from national inventories on HGH emissions with scenarios allowed to increase rigor and precision and the identification of new potential trends that should attain importance in the future permit feedback

6. Macro Scenarios 2005- 2030 (storylines and quantitative assessment):
Oil intensive, high economic development
Oil intensive, low economic development
Non fossil-fuels intensive
Baseline
Balanced energy supply
Main outcomes:
Emission intensity of GDP, selected sectors and activities for each scenario, percapita emissions.
Elasticity of growth to GDP for selected sectors and activities
Emissions factors for several sectors that where included into each scenario, (electricity, transportation, oil, mining, etc.)
Policy ideas for mitigation programs and strategies
CDM policies
TOOLS: ENPEP, LEAP, DECADES, MAED, PRODOM O.O, and
NAIADE, (multicriteria based on set of criteria and information affected by different types and degrees of uncertainty )

7. Bottom-up assessment: Three steps
Design of a software for bottom-up mitigation options and CDM.
Module for calculation of emissions factors
Link the software with co-benefits (savings in investment, benefits from change in environmental quality, co-benefits of afforestation, etc.)