2. Retail’s Good Year Accelerates Into the Third Quarter
The grand total of $1.52 trillion in Q unadjusted retail and food services sales, which includes motor vehicles, parts and gasoline stations, increased 5.3%, essentially repeating the increase for the first half of 2018, which was 5.4%.
Total unadjusted retail sales and food services for Q3 2018, excluding motor vehicles, parts and gasoline stations, increased 5.1%, to $1.06 trillion, compared to a 4.9% increase during the first half of 2018.
Total adjusted Q retail e-commerce sales were $130.9 billion, increasing 3.1% from Q and 14.5% from Q3 2017, and were 9.8% of all Q3 retail sales.

3. With the Support of an Energized Economy
Since consumer spending accounts for 68% of the GDP, it has to perform well for retail sales to generate positive numbers; and the GDP contributed its part by increasing at a 3.5% annual rate during Q3 2018, 0.1% more than the Dow Jones forecasted.
The job market also continued to contribute to an improving economy, although the nonfarm employment total of 492,000 for Q3 wasn’t as many as Q2 2018’s 600,000; however, the unemployment rate decreased from 4.0% to 3.7%.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index® increased from for July to for August to for September. The Present Situation Index increased to from August’s and the Expectations Index increased to from

4. July’s Performance Was an Excellent Start to the Quarter
Based on the seasonally adjusted US Census Bureau data (including motor vehicles and gas stations), July 2018 retail sales increased 6.2% YOY and 0.5% from June.
Although sales and traffic at physical stores declined from July 2017, or -2.1% and -4.7%, according to RetailNext’s Retail Performance Pulse Report, both metrics were much better than any month of Q1 and Q2.
Regionally, the Midwest had the “best” negative sales performance, at -1.7%, and traffic, -2.0% YOY while the Northeast had the worst performance, with sales -8.2% and traffic -8.5%.

5. August Continues the Robust Growth
August’s total retail sales (seasonally adjusted and including motor vehicles and gas stations) were $461.4 billion, a 6.1% YOY increase and a 3.3% MOM increase.
With back-to-school shopping in full swing during August, many associated retail categories recorded YOY increases; however, sales at sporting goods stores (NAICS 45111) decreased 4.9%.
RetailNext reported store-based sales were - 5.2% and traffic -5.4% YOY.

6. September Cools a Hot Quarter
September’s total retail sales of $424.2 billion (seasonally adjusted and including motor vehicles and gas stations) generated a 2.1% YOY increase, but 8.0% less than August’s.
Removing motor vehicles and gas stations from the total created some improvement, with a net total of $326.2 billion, 3.6% more than September 2017 and -7.0% MOM.
RetailNext’s physical-store data certainly reinforces the sluggish September sales, as sales were -7.6%, equaling the worst monthly performance of the year (March), and traffic’s - 7.1% was the worst since April’s -7.8%.

7. More Than 3,800 Net New Stores During 2018
Despite the constant drumbeat of a “retail apocalypse,” 3,835 more retail stores will open than close during 2018, according to the IHL Group’s August 2018 report, Retail’s Radical Transformation/Real Opportunities.
The concern with e-commerce sales “decimating” brick-and-mortar sales still remains generally unfounded. Pure-play e-commerce (online retail only) represented 25% of total retail sales during the first 7 months of 2017, but 18.7% for the same period.
All e-commerce (pure-play and store-based) is approximately 19% of all retail sales, but IHL’s forecast is 25.7% by 2021; however, 81% of all e- commerce will still involve stores and much of the 25.7% will be click and collect, buy online pickup at stores, etc.

8. Advertising Strategies
Although Q has passed, share this Profiler with your prospects and clients and explain that it is a good place to start developing their Q campaigns, promotions and advertising. It’s never too early to plan.
To counter any confusion among consumers about a “retail apocalypse,” recommend local retailers create bigger-than-normal promotional events for any new store openings during 2019.
To help boost Q store traffic and sales, local retailers may want to promote a “Thank You, Loyal Customers” event for making the purchases that made 2018 such a good year for retailers, especially if the holiday season generates the large revenues forecasted.

9. New Media Strategies
As click and collect, buy online pick up stores and similar services continue to resonate with consumers, 2019 is the year more local and smaller retailers must seriously consider adding these services as well as local deliveries.
Suggest retailers use their Website, social media and campaigns during January to share what new products and services and any expansion they plan for Consumers receive a coupon for a new product when signing up for the store’s list.
Promote general optimism among your customers and the public, based on the NFIB and Wells Fargo/Gallup optimism indices with social media posts, etc. Ask a mental health professional to comment. Ask people to share what they do to remain optimistic.